Under market conditions like this, I believe most people are just observing. Trump changes his face every day; the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and geopolitical conflicts are still fairly evident. The Federal Reserve, under U.S. conditions, has to keep raising interest rates. And as of now, holding rates unchanged is already the result of the Fed’s efforts to maintain them. Whether Powell stepped down and Wossh took over, the outcome hasn’t changed—Wossh is simply continuing Powell’s work.

Is ETH not at the bottom? Is this now the end of the bear market? In fact, the time cycle has already provided the answer. Why do I say that? Let’s look back at the previous three bear markets

The first round: lasting 13 months from 2013 to 2015

The second round: lasting 12 months from 2017 to 2018

The third round: lasting 12 months from 2021 to 2022

This cycle: from 2025 to now—currently already 10 months have passed.

As of now, ETH appears to be more resilient than BTC. During the broader market’s collective drop on June 5 this year (2021), there was basically no pullback—BTC fell to 59,078 and ETH fell to 1,503. After the short-term repair, BTC broke below the previous low again. Many voices in the market say there may be new lows. But in fact, the support at ETH 1,503 is very strong.

BTC has gradually shown spot buy orders and futures orders being stacked; BTC around 700,000–800,000 (i.e., 70–80k) and ETH starting with 2 are very likely to be by the end of this month to early next month. During this period, there will be a pullback to generate futures buy orders. BTC support is around 60,000; ETH support is around 1,650–1,630. Once it pulls back to this level, everyone can start setting up positions.

Iran and the U.S. previously signed an agreement on June 17 aimed at ending the war in the Middle East. After the signing, encrypting cryptocurrencies indeed played a certain role in helping the market recover—people seemed to regain confidence. But it didn’t last long: the conflict between Iran and the U.S. flared up again, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed once more. Major funds rushed to take refuge; in the short term, geopolitical tensions can’t cool down. However, this is also a very important signal and a crucial factor.

Waller faces the first major decision of his tenure! The Fed unanimously passed the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. It wasn’t hard to reach this decision at that meeting because, within the FOMC, almost nobody wanted to make an adjustment immediately due to FOMO. Since the last Fed rate decision meeting, Waller’s colleagues have increased their concerns about inflation, and the Fed will likely consider a rate hike in late July. By then, they will have the latest June inflation data—this will be an important set of data for the next rate decision meeting.

Worth noting is that some officials who previously drove rate cuts are now also starting to consider rate hikes. This may indicate that the situation has fundamentally changed. Fed Governor Waller, who led last year’s rate-cut actions, previously worried that the jobs market was heading toward weakness. But last week, he announced that the risks have “fully reversed,” and his view on where interest rates are heading also changed accordingly.

From a technical perspective, combining the factors:

Currently, ETH’s weekly liquidations are around 1,680–1,650. Today’s spot buy orders and the futures orders being placed are also around this range. Therefore, this month’s CPI and non-farm payroll data releases, as well as the Fed’s rate decision meeting, will guide BTC and ETH to move into this range.

How should we look at the candlestick chart?

ETH’s daily chart has formed a double bottom; the weekly chart begins to repair, and the monthly chart turns positive.

Around 1,503, there is clear buy support; several consecutive bullish candles have sparked a rebound, with the lows continuously being lifted, indicating that short-term buyers are starting to return.

But currently, the price is still in the prior resistance zone and hasn’t fully broken through the downward trend suppression. For the rebound to be considered a reversal, it still needs confirmation.

During the decline, volume increased and distribution was released; during the rebound stage, trading volume has recovered somewhat.

This suggests the market isn’t simply lacking buyers—capital is starting to come back in.

However, for a real primary bull move, you need to see a clear expansion in volume when breaking through key resistance.

On the daily chart, the green MACD bars have been continuously shrinking, and the DIF is starting to move upward toward the DEA.

This is a positive signal.

It indicates that bearish momentum is weakening, but a strong bullish golden cross hasn’t formed yet—this is still a repair phase.

Recently, capital flows have improved: the inflow from major players has increased, indicating that there are funds taking over at low levels.

But for a reversal in the larger-term trend, it needs sustained net inflows to accompany a price breakout.$BTC $ETH $SOL