I look at ETH not as 'up or down right now', but as cycles of liquidity and sentiment.
If I remember the year 2020, the market was devastated then. Fear, distrust, the elimination of weak hands. And then 2021 gave that very fierce pump, when assets skyrocketed so fast that many couldn't adjust their expectations.
The cycle logic is very simplified:
2020. Capitulation and accumulation
The market is being cleaned, strong players are building their positions, weak ones are giving up.
2021. Impulse and euphoria
When fuel in the form of liquidity and FOMO appears, the movement accelerates. Growth starts to feed itself.
2022. Bear market and compression
Pullbacks and sobering. The market takes out those who held without a plan.
2023–2024. Recovery
A structure appears. The trend returns, but in a calmer manner.
2025–2026. Potential for a strong phase
It is during this period that many build expectations of a powerful market. There are plenty of forecasts about a very strong pump, but a forecast is not a guarantee. This is a scenario that the market can play out.
My plan
I hold the position not blindly.
If there is a first confident impulse, I move the stop closer and reduce the risk.
If the growth continues, I move the position to breakeven.
If the market decides to make a pullback and knock out weak hands, that's normal. My risk is limited in advance.
Currently, the key psychological level is the zone of 3000+. Often the price is purposely pulled back to gather liquidity and knock out those who place stops too close. Only after that can the market continue its movement.
Disclaimer. This is not financial advice. I share logic, cycles, and risk management. Any trade is the personal responsibility of the trader.