This week is a big data week, and the playful-looking market that came before it is also coming to an end.
First, let’s look at the events to watch this week:
1. Release of the US June CPI and PPI;
2. Remarks by FOMC members and the Chair, as well as the Beige Book release;
3. Escalation of geopolitical conflicts;
4. MSTR’s stance.
Before we get started, let me ask, brothers: over the past week, the US-Iran conflict escalated. MSTR sold 3,588 BTC, yet the BTC price didn’t move much. ETH didn’t fall—if anything, it rose. Meanwhile, during the week, analysts across various institutions started to go bullish: things like “ETH is experiencing a structural uplift,” and “since we’re at the end of the bear market, it’s time to start buying.” Doesn’t this behavior feel abnormal, yet oddly familiar?
Back to the events: for the US June CPI, expectations are being revised downward from the previous 4.2% year-over-year to 3.8%—the same level as the prior May expectation. The month-over-month figure is also forecast to move from the prior value of 0.5% down to -0.1%. Here, I won’t even mention the PPI that came in above expectations in May. Focusing just on the June US labor and people’s livelihood side, perhaps seasonality during the harvest period caused food and oil prices to decline, providing grounds for the data adjustment. But the impact on oil, exports, and trade driven by geopolitical conflict will only intensify. Combined with the transmission effect from the PPI, given real-world conditions on people’s livelihoods, the downward revision can only be seen as an illusion.
As for the relevant remarks from the FOMC: I won’t guess whether they’ll be hawkish or dovish. But based on the stance shown by Waller in his “debut,” with inflation not yet improving, I don’t think they can offer market-positive comments. And considering the current market environment, I believe that more cautious, hawkish-leaning messaging is more in line with what’s happening right now.
For the remaining geopolitical-conflict-related matters, you can look up the specifics through professional sources yourself. All I can say is that the real situation and the impact will be far worse than what everyone feels. And regarding MSTR’s position—whether or not they continue buying—once they broke their “never sell” rule, unless what they plan truly is a fourfold buy, they remain the biggest bearish signal in the market today.
Looking back at the technical picture: I can state clearly and firmly—this cycle’s topping level is 645K for BTC and 1845 for ETH. In the short term, you might not see a new “second bottom” attempt, but the downside is basically a done deal. That reduced-volume rally which formed abnormally during this period will be the richest firewood for retail “small fry” who follow in—burning the most fiercely during the next downswing. Stay tuned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#伊朗称已关闭霍尔木兹海峡
First, let’s look at the events to watch this week:
1. Release of the US June CPI and PPI;
2. Remarks by FOMC members and the Chair, as well as the Beige Book release;
3. Escalation of geopolitical conflicts;
4. MSTR’s stance.
Before we get started, let me ask, brothers: over the past week, the US-Iran conflict escalated. MSTR sold 3,588 BTC, yet the BTC price didn’t move much. ETH didn’t fall—if anything, it rose. Meanwhile, during the week, analysts across various institutions started to go bullish: things like “ETH is experiencing a structural uplift,” and “since we’re at the end of the bear market, it’s time to start buying.” Doesn’t this behavior feel abnormal, yet oddly familiar?
Back to the events: for the US June CPI, expectations are being revised downward from the previous 4.2% year-over-year to 3.8%—the same level as the prior May expectation. The month-over-month figure is also forecast to move from the prior value of 0.5% down to -0.1%. Here, I won’t even mention the PPI that came in above expectations in May. Focusing just on the June US labor and people’s livelihood side, perhaps seasonality during the harvest period caused food and oil prices to decline, providing grounds for the data adjustment. But the impact on oil, exports, and trade driven by geopolitical conflict will only intensify. Combined with the transmission effect from the PPI, given real-world conditions on people’s livelihoods, the downward revision can only be seen as an illusion.
As for the relevant remarks from the FOMC: I won’t guess whether they’ll be hawkish or dovish. But based on the stance shown by Waller in his “debut,” with inflation not yet improving, I don’t think they can offer market-positive comments. And considering the current market environment, I believe that more cautious, hawkish-leaning messaging is more in line with what’s happening right now.
For the remaining geopolitical-conflict-related matters, you can look up the specifics through professional sources yourself. All I can say is that the real situation and the impact will be far worse than what everyone feels. And regarding MSTR’s position—whether or not they continue buying—once they broke their “never sell” rule, unless what they plan truly is a fourfold buy, they remain the biggest bearish signal in the market today.
Looking back at the technical picture: I can state clearly and firmly—this cycle’s topping level is 645K for BTC and 1845 for ETH. In the short term, you might not see a new “second bottom” attempt, but the downside is basically a done deal. That reduced-volume rally which formed abnormally during this period will be the richest firewood for retail “small fry” who follow in—burning the most fiercely during the next downswing. Stay tuned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#伊朗称已关闭霍尔木兹海峡