This week is expected to be a sequence of trades that will shape the medium-term trend across all asset classes—from stocks, to crypto, to crude oil, and even the US dollar. The macro outlook is dealing with a host of major variables, intertwined between geopolitical risk and looming inflation pressure. Below is the key data picture that brothers need to master in order to position their capital flows:
Monday: The market opens under pressure from repricing risk as tensions in the Middle East escalate to the extreme. The Strait of Hormuz being blocked will directly drive a sharp jump in crude oil prices, creating downside pressure on central banks’ efforts to control inflation.
Tuesday (14/07) & Wednesday (15/07): US CPI and PPI index data will be released. In the context of energy prices absorbing a supply shock, the core CPI data will be the deciding gauge of whether the Fed is forced to keep interest rates at elevated levels longer than expected.
Thursday (16/07): The Retail Sales report will provide a real-world view of demand strength among US consumers under pressure from inflation and expensive borrowing costs.
Throughout the Week: Around 10% of companies included in the S&P 500 index will begin reporting quarterly financial results. Smart money will scrutinize the profit margins of major corporations very closely to assess the economy’s actual resilience.
Monday: The market opens under pressure from repricing risk as tensions in the Middle East escalate to the extreme. The Strait of Hormuz being blocked will directly drive a sharp jump in crude oil prices, creating downside pressure on central banks’ efforts to control inflation.
Tuesday (14/07) & Wednesday (15/07): US CPI and PPI index data will be released. In the context of energy prices absorbing a supply shock, the core CPI data will be the deciding gauge of whether the Fed is forced to keep interest rates at elevated levels longer than expected.
Thursday (16/07): The Retail Sales report will provide a real-world view of demand strength among US consumers under pressure from inflation and expensive borrowing costs.
Throughout the Week: Around 10% of companies included in the S&P 500 index will begin reporting quarterly financial results. Smart money will scrutinize the profit margins of major corporations very closely to assess the economy’s actual resilience.