Yesterday (29 JAN), the U.S. Treasury Department lowered its estimate of net borrowing in the first quarter from 816 billion USD to 760 billion USD (-6.9%), which was unexpectedly lower than market expectations. This drove a rebound in U.S. Treasuries, with long-term bond yields leading the decline. The current two-year/ten-year yields are 4.314%/4.061%, respectively. It also helped U.S. stocks to strengthen in late trading, with the Dow/S&P/Nasdaq closing up 0.59%/0.76%/1.1%, respectively.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: Binance & TradingView

Source: SignalPlus

In terms of digital currencies, BTC continued to lead the market upward, closing up 1,300 points on the day and returning to above $43,000 again. The Future APR in the futures market was also boosted by this, basically reaching about 10%. In terms of options, BTC's implied volatility rose slightly by 1-2% Vol overall; ETH rose 1.84% from its low point at the end of February, and other maturities rose slightly by about 0.6%; the overall shape of the ATM Curve remained unchanged, still maintaining a relatively flat front end, and the current situation of rising since the end of February.

Source: Deribit (as of 30 JAN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus

From another perspective, as an important market sentiment indicator, Vol Skew rose again today. From the past 24 hours of trading, we also observed that ETH's transactions concentrated in February showed obvious Risky Flow, pushing the mid-to-front-end 25 dRR to reverse; in terms of BTC, some transactions shifted to the medium and long term, and a large number of call options were concentrated around the 0.2-0.3 Delta of 9 FEB/29 MAR/26 APR, but at the same time, there was also obvious selling pressure on 2 FEB this week, concentrated on the 43,000 and 44,000 strike prices, which may be stop-loss orders or lower expectations for price breakthroughs in the short term.

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew rises again

Data Source: Deribit, ETH Risky Flow drives the mid-front 25 dRR upward

Data Source: Deribit, a large number of call options are concentrated around 0.2-0.3 Delta on 9 FEB/29 MAR/26 APR

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade