Fire erupts again in the Middle East, yet gold prices don’t rise—they fall instead. This time the market’s calculations are a bit different from the past.
On July 13 Beijing time, a renewed military strike by Iran reignited concerns about inflation, but gold prices slipped rather than rose. The logic has changed: the market isn’t just afraid of the fighting itself. What it fears is that if oil prices are pushed higher, inflation could flare up again. That would lead to expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer—and a high-rate environment is actually a drag on gold, which doesn’t yield interest.
All eyes are now on tonight’s CPI data and any related remarks from Warsh. If the data comes in on the hot side, bargain-hunting demand for safe-haven assets is likely to keep giving way to the main theme of “rate-hike expectations.”
Don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term. First, watch which direction the CPI prints. As a Binance-tradable gold benchmark, $PAXG is more suitable for trying out small positions when volatility amplifies. The long-term thesis for $XAU hasn’t broken, but the short-term rhythm needs to follow the data.
Do you think this round is a case of “war-related bullishness failing,” or is it simply a pullback before the data is released?
#黄金 #Trading
On July 13 Beijing time, a renewed military strike by Iran reignited concerns about inflation, but gold prices slipped rather than rose. The logic has changed: the market isn’t just afraid of the fighting itself. What it fears is that if oil prices are pushed higher, inflation could flare up again. That would lead to expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer—and a high-rate environment is actually a drag on gold, which doesn’t yield interest.
All eyes are now on tonight’s CPI data and any related remarks from Warsh. If the data comes in on the hot side, bargain-hunting demand for safe-haven assets is likely to keep giving way to the main theme of “rate-hike expectations.”
Don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term. First, watch which direction the CPI prints. As a Binance-tradable gold benchmark, $PAXG is more suitable for trying out small positions when volatility amplifies. The long-term thesis for $XAU hasn’t broken, but the short-term rhythm needs to follow the data.
Do you think this round is a case of “war-related bullishness failing,” or is it simply a pullback before the data is released?
#黄金 #Trading