20260/7/13 weekly review

1、BTC weekly chart forms a small doji. Bulls and bears are in disagreement at this level, but the divergence is not as large as people might imagine. It still continues the rebound strength from the prior week’s stop-the-fall candle. Next, we need to closely monitor the key resistance level at 69K. If it breaks through, then we would need to adjust our bearish bias.

As of now, the slope of the 20-week moving average is gradually flattening. If the price is to keep rising, it tends to move sideways. This means not only that the bearish power is becoming extremely exhausted, but also that the bulls are gradually shifting from passive to active. If you are going to take a short position, it is recommended to do so around 69K, with support at 61.8K.

2、ETH’s weekly chart is quite similar to BTC. At around 1500U is basically the bottom of the entire July so far. The probability of breaking to new lows in the near term is very low. On the upside, closely watch the 20-week moving average at 2000 as the pressure level. On the downside, the support level is 1700U. Meanwhile, the weekly chart and daily chart show a relatively clear bottom divergence pattern. At this point, it is not recommended to short; instead, keep an eye on potential opportunities around 2000.

3、The ETH/BTC exchange rate is also forming a base. The 60-week moving average is starting to flatten and slope upward. If the exchange rate breaks above 0.032, it would mean that ETH’s future price action will lead BTC. This is somewhat like the chart from the 2019–2020 period, and it’s worth looking forward to.