3 AM: The Federal Reserve Minutes Are Coming, The Path to Interest Rate Cuts in 2026 is Uncertain
At 3 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes will be released. Although this meeting completed the third interest rate cut of 2025, the number of dissenting votes reached a new high since 2019, with three against, two calling for no action, and one urging a 50 basis point cut.
This minutes document is crucial in three aspects:
How to view the potential overstatement of employment data;
Whether there is a clear tendency in the policy path for 2026;
Whether the threshold for interest rate cuts has substantially increased.
The dot plot has shown severe divergence, with the median forecast for officials in 2026 being only a 25 basis point cut, but some expect no cuts, and others predict two cuts.
The market currently bets that there will be no action in January next year (probability 84%), but still expects two interest rate cuts in 2026. If the minutes release a stronger wait-and-see signal, the dollar may rebound, and risk assets may come under pressure. Behind the divergence is the difficult balance between inflation, employment, and political uncertainty. This minutes document may well be the first draft of the monetary script for 2026.
#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
At 3 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes will be released. Although this meeting completed the third interest rate cut of 2025, the number of dissenting votes reached a new high since 2019, with three against, two calling for no action, and one urging a 50 basis point cut.
This minutes document is crucial in three aspects:
How to view the potential overstatement of employment data;
Whether there is a clear tendency in the policy path for 2026;
Whether the threshold for interest rate cuts has substantially increased.
The dot plot has shown severe divergence, with the median forecast for officials in 2026 being only a 25 basis point cut, but some expect no cuts, and others predict two cuts.
The market currently bets that there will be no action in January next year (probability 84%), but still expects two interest rate cuts in 2026. If the minutes release a stronger wait-and-see signal, the dollar may rebound, and risk assets may come under pressure. Behind the divergence is the difficult balance between inflation, employment, and political uncertainty. This minutes document may well be the first draft of the monetary script for 2026.
#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
