A year has fallen back to the starting point, ADA is once again at a crossroads of fate
In just one year, Cardano has almost erased all the gains brought by the 2024 U.S. election market, where that wave of over 300% increase has now been completely swallowed by the market crash at the end of 2025. The price has returned to the range of $0.32–$0.36, which is precisely where the real major market movement of 2024 began. The core question the market is facing now is simply, #ADA will there be another unexpected rebound from here?
The technicals are starting to send signals to the bulls
Since mid-December, ADA's price has shown significant resilience. Although it set new lows in November and December, the daily RSI did not decline simultaneously but instead formed higher lows, which is typically seen as a classic bullish divergence signal. Meanwhile, the MACD has also formed a golden cross, and the subsequent 10% rebound after Christmas coincides highly with this signal. The price rose from $0.34 to $0.37, indicating that the bulls are starting to gradually take control of the rhythm, and as long as the current support holds, the rebound momentum still exists.
However, the real test is not in front of us but near the 50-day moving average around $0.42. If ADA can regain this position, the next target will naturally point to $0.50, which is an important support area before 2025. Once regained, market sentiment will change significantly.
Key signals from the liquidation chart
The monthly liquidation heat map provides further evidence for this logic. The range of $0.39 to $0.42 has gathered a large amount of upper liquidity, almost entirely coinciding with the 50-day moving average area, which means that if the price begins to accelerate upward, it is very likely to be pushed towards these positions. At the same time, below, around $0.34, there is a significant accumulation of leveraged long positions, which may become the focus of price testing in the short term, explaining why ADA has been oscillating repeatedly in the $0.34–$0.37 range recently.
Emotional changes from a long-term perspective
For long-term holders, the signals released by current data are more subtle. The MVRV indicator shows that investors who have held for 3 months are on average facing a loss of about 25%, while investors who have held for over a year have an unrealized loss close to 38%. In other words, most of the chips in the current market are underwater, and this structure typically indicates that the willingness to sell is gradually decreasing. Most holders prefer to wait for prices to return to near the cost line before considering reducing their positions rather than panic selling in deep loss zones.
It is this emotional structure that has significantly reduced the selling pressure at the current stage and created conditions for a potential rebound.
The risk boundary is also clear
Of course, this does not mean that the market has entered a safe zone. If the price effectively breaks below the key support area of $0.32–$0.36, then this rebound logic will be completely shattered, and ADA is likely to return to the low point area of 2023, seeking balance again near $0.24. Therefore, this support zone is both the hope of the bulls and the bottom line that must be defended.
Summary perspective
Currently, ADA is in an extremely critical position, where historical breakout zones, technical divergences, indicator golden crosses, emotional recovery, and liquidity structures are converging at the same time. This does not mean that the market has started, but it indicates that the market is quietly paving the way for a potential rebound. As long as the range of $0.32–$0.36 remains solid, the bulls still hold opportunities, and once the $0.42 level is broken, the market narrative is likely to be rewritten.
At this moment, it is a phase where patience and risk coexist, and it is also where many cyclical market trends are truly nurtured.#加密市场观察
