Today is December 29, Monday. Bitcoin suddenly rebounded, with an intraday increase of over 2%, once breaking through the $90,000 mark, and the current trading price is about $89,600. This wave of increase was accompanied by short liquidations exceeding $25 million, with the total cryptocurrency market liquidation amount reaching $160 million, mainly driven by short sellers' liquidations. Analysts attribute this to both retail investors and whales buying in simultaneously, especially as exchanges show strong buying signals. After derivative positions were adjusted, financing rates rose, and implied volatility decreased. While market fragility remains, bulls are quietly pushing prices higher. 10x Research pointed out that despite low trading volume, changes in the options market indicate a potential significant shift, paving the way for a 'Santa Claus rally.' Other cryptocurrencies rose in tandem: Ethereum (ETH) broke through $3,000, increasing by over 3%; Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL) and other altcoins also followed the rebound, bringing the total market capitalization back above $3 trillion.

With only a few trading days left in 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) market stands at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin fails to achieve a significant price rise by year-end, it will be the first annual loss since the introduction of the Bitcoin halving mechanism, breaking the long-standing four-year cycle expectation in the market.

Year-end pressure: 6.24% upward window

A well-known analyst points out that Bitcoin needs to rise approximately 6.24% from its current level to close above its year-beginning price. This is not just a numerical milestone, but also a psychological and technical benchmark. Failure would signal a potential structural shift in the post-halving bull market pattern. Since Bitcoin reached a new high of $125,000–$126,000 in October, it has declined nearly 30%, dropping as low as $80,000 in November, sparking concerns about whether the bull market has ended. Technically, Bitcoin has remained below its 365-day moving average for an extended period, and volatility indicators suggest declining speculative interest, showing signs of weakening structural support. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have also turned negative, recording substantial outflows for multiple weeks in December, totaling over $1 billion, reflecting institutional investors reducing positions and engaging in tax-loss harvesting at year-end.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are driving momentum

Positive geopolitical news arrives during the rebound. U.S. President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Florida on December 28 to discuss a peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Both sides stated they have reached 90%-95% consensus on a 20-point plan, with remaining issues mainly concerning territory and security guarantees. Trump said peace is 'closer than ever,' and he plans to call Putin next. This news boosted risk asset sentiment, and Federal Reserve repo operations injecting liquidity further supported the market. The precious metals market saw a pullback: gold priced around $4,500 per ounce, silver around $79–80 per ounce (though hitting record highs, it has recently declined). Some analysts believe capital is rotating from traditional safe-haven assets into the crypto market, similar to the 2020 pattern—precious metals rose first, then funds flowed into Bitcoin.

Analyst分歧: dead cat bounce or the start of a new bull market?

Opinions are sharply divided. Pessimists like Ali Martinez warn this is a 'dead cat bounce,' with net capital outflows exceeding $4.5 billion and ETFs continuing to shrink. Mike McGlone predicts Bitcoin's relative value to gold could halve to 10 times. Optimists highlight technical signals: bullish divergence on RSI, support near the 200-day moving average, and a rising copper-to-gold ratio signaling a rotation toward risk assets. PlanB and TechDev note that Bitcoin's divergence from gold and silver often precedes strong upward moves. Institutional views, such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, believe Bitcoin is a 'net positive for the dollar,' capable of countering inflation and deficits.

Historical patterns show that Bitcoin often follows strong performances in precious metals. If liquidity remains宽松 and regulations become clearer, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2026.

Looking ahead to 2026: Is consolidation ending and a new cycle beginning?

Despite a lackluster 2025 performance (mild compared to halving expectations), Bitcoin's dominance has risen above 60%, and institutional holdings remain solid. Holding above $90,000 at year-end could pave the way for 2026. The market is closely watching the January Fed meeting—although the current probability of rate cuts is as low as 18.8%, any sign of easing could ignite the next leg of the rally.

The Bitcoin market has never lacked drama. Whether this recent rebound at year-end continues will determine if 2025 becomes a 'bear market end' or a 'bull market pause.' If this pattern persists, the current consolidation in Bitcoin may be a calm before the next rally, rather than the beginning of a downturn.