The price of Solana has dropped about 12% in the last 30 days. Heading into 2026, the chart shows a mix of bullish and bearish signals.
Some indicators signal a potential rebound in January, but others indicate that pressure could continue if momentum fails to appear.
History tends to be bullish, but ETF flows and expert opinions are divided.
January becomes a strong month for Solana. The average return is close to 59%, with a median increase of around 22%. This pattern becomes sharper as December ends in red.
In 2022, SOL fell 29.6% in December, then in January 2023, SOL rallied by 140%. In December 2024, SOL dropped 20.5%, then in January 2025 rose by 22.3%. This month so far has dropped 6.94%, making it statistically more inclined towards a rebound.
Want insights on other tokens? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya's Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
ETF data supports this idea. Since its launch, the Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) has never recorded a weekly net outflow. Last week even added US$13.14 million (not the end of the week), bringing the total cumulative inflow to US$755.77 million.
This stable demand indicates selective confidence in SOL while other major crypto assets are experiencing fund withdrawals.
The B2BinPay analytics team explains the significance of this flow pattern for Solana and the market in general, in their discussion with BeInCrypto:
“Investors are not doing a massive rotation out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into the altcoin market. They are prioritizing a small group of liquid and well-known tokens, where losses feel manageable and positions can be closed quickly if needed.
That’s why only a few altcoins like Solana or XRP are receiving inflows, while other markets are quiet. The current inflow to Solana should not be mistaken as the beginning of altcoin season. This movement is very limited and highly selective,” the team explained.
This supports the inflow of SOL ETFs, but also reminds us not to conclude that this is the beginning of a broad altcoin season.
Chart signals indicate a reversal, but EMA lines and derivatives show resistance.
On the two-day chart, SOL's price formed a lower low between November 21 and December 17, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI, a momentum indicator that shows overbought/oversold strength) formed a higher low. This pattern is called bullish divergence and could signal the beginning of a trend reversal if buyers continue their buying actions.
However, bearish conditions are also present at the same time.
At the same timeframe, the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) almost crossed below the 200-period EMA.
If this bearish crossover is truly confirmed, downward pressure could continue until the end of December or early January before any recovery that can sustain. Until that crossover is invalidated or reversed, the technical picture remains mixed.
Derivative positions show a more cautious stance. In Hyperliquid, almost all trader groups have been net short over the last seven days.
100 top addresses, smart money, and whale accounts in Solana are all net short. Nevertheless, some groups (smart money, public figures, and perp winners) are slowly starting to open long positions. This could be in anticipation of a bullish January 2026, as previously explained.
This mixed condition keeps the setup balanced. Momentum shows the potential for a reversal. The EMA lines and derivative positions suggest that we should be patient. If Solana wants to build a rally in January, it must change the derivative sentiment from short positions and avoid a bearish EMA crossover.
Key Price Levels for Solana: US$129 as Pivot, US$116 as Safe Limit
SOL is currently trading near US$124. If the closing price for two consecutive days is above US$129, this will confirm strength and open the way to US$150. If SOL surpasses US$150, the next target could be US$171, as long as ETF fund flows remain strong and RSI momentum continues to rise.
The heat map cost-basis data explains why the US$129 level is very important. One of the strongest supply clusters is between US$123 and US$124, and currently, SOL is trying to break through that area.
If SOL can close above US$129, that cluster will be cleared, removing the nearest resistance. After that, supply becomes thinner up to the range of US$165—US$167, increasing the chance of a continued upward trend if trading volume also rises.
The heat map cost-basis shows where large holder groups acquired their tokens, highlighting potential supply or demand accumulation zones.
On the downside, US$116 remains a safe limit. If this level is lost, the usual “red December, green January” pattern will fail, and the downward trend could continue. A confirmed bearish EMA crossover and a price drop below US$116 will change expectations for this month.
Currently, SOL's price movement is influenced by two important limits. If the price manages to rise above US$129, bullish momentum gives room to move to US$150 and US$171. But if the price falls below US$116, buyers lose control, and the strength of January season may not emerge.