Weekly Macro Reminder: The Year-End Approaches, Risks Lurk Beneath the Calm
This week, the market officially enters the year-end rhythm. It seems calm on the surface, but in reality, there are hidden volatility risks. Here are three core points for your reference:
1. Liquidity Enters Holiday Mode
Although there are only two official holidays for Christmas this week and New Year’s Day next week, most institutions in the European and American markets have already entered holiday mode, with trading volume significantly shrinking. Some European exchanges even closed early.
Additionally, with financial institutions closing their books at year-end and teams on rotation, the real liquidity recovery in the market may have to wait until after January 5. Before then, the market may experience significant fluctuations due to a small amount of capital, so it is advised to manage positions carefully and exercise caution with high leverage.
2. Release of the Bank of Japan’s Meeting Minutes (December 29, 07:50)
Japan just completed an interest rate hike in December, and this release of meeting minutes will reveal more decision-making details and internal discussions. Although the market generally expects Japan's interest rate hikes to be slow-paced and long-term, if the minutes signal a tougher stance, it could still disturb risk sentiment, especially affecting yen-related assets and the Asia-Pacific market.
3. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes for December (December 31, 03:00)
The importance of this minutes lies in its ability to clearly reflect the internal divergences and consensus within the Federal Reserve, especially regarding discussions on next year’s interest rate path. The market will use this to speculate on the policy tone for the first half of 2026, with current expectations leaning towards no rate cuts in the first quarter and potential acceleration of easing in the second half. If the minutes reinforce this expectation, it may drive fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, thus affecting global asset pricing.
In the last weeks of the year, the dominant logic of the market is not the trend, but emotional fluctuations due to a lack of liquidity. With large funds on holiday, the market is prone to abrupt movements due to news or small order volumes. The true direction may only become clear after the New Year’s bell tolls and funds return.
#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH $SERAPH
This week, the market officially enters the year-end rhythm. It seems calm on the surface, but in reality, there are hidden volatility risks. Here are three core points for your reference:
1. Liquidity Enters Holiday Mode
Although there are only two official holidays for Christmas this week and New Year’s Day next week, most institutions in the European and American markets have already entered holiday mode, with trading volume significantly shrinking. Some European exchanges even closed early.
Additionally, with financial institutions closing their books at year-end and teams on rotation, the real liquidity recovery in the market may have to wait until after January 5. Before then, the market may experience significant fluctuations due to a small amount of capital, so it is advised to manage positions carefully and exercise caution with high leverage.
2. Release of the Bank of Japan’s Meeting Minutes (December 29, 07:50)
Japan just completed an interest rate hike in December, and this release of meeting minutes will reveal more decision-making details and internal discussions. Although the market generally expects Japan's interest rate hikes to be slow-paced and long-term, if the minutes signal a tougher stance, it could still disturb risk sentiment, especially affecting yen-related assets and the Asia-Pacific market.
3. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes for December (December 31, 03:00)
The importance of this minutes lies in its ability to clearly reflect the internal divergences and consensus within the Federal Reserve, especially regarding discussions on next year’s interest rate path. The market will use this to speculate on the policy tone for the first half of 2026, with current expectations leaning towards no rate cuts in the first quarter and potential acceleration of easing in the second half. If the minutes reinforce this expectation, it may drive fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, thus affecting global asset pricing.
In the last weeks of the year, the dominant logic of the market is not the trend, but emotional fluctuations due to a lack of liquidity. With large funds on holiday, the market is prone to abrupt movements due to news or small order volumes. The true direction may only become clear after the New Year’s bell tolls and funds return.
#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH $SERAPH
