Warning! Warning! The ETH market is abnormal this time, and it may be more exciting than you think! A fan asked me, 'Why are there still whales increasing their positions when the price has dropped like this?' Today, let's delve into the core point of 'whale movements' and discuss the underlying logic behind ETH's volatility—frankly speaking, this is not just small retail investors making minor moves, but rather big funds betting on next year’s 'life or death situation'!
First, let me share a shocking statistic: In the past six months, the whale wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have increased their holdings to over 22 million ETH, and they are still continuing to accumulate. What's even more exaggerated is that the institution under Yi Lihua clearly has an average holding price of 3,208 USD, and they are now facing a floating loss of over 140 million USD, yet they are still using leverage to increase their positions, borrowing nearly 900 million USDT from Aave to continue buying. Does this operation seem crazy? But from the perspective of big funds, it is actually quite understandable.
I personally believe that the reason whales dare to 'buy more as the price falls' is that they are optimistic about the long-term value of ETH, especially with the scalability upgrade in January next year. According to news, Ethereum's network transaction processing capacity will increase from 60 million to 80 million, which means the network congestion issue will be further alleviated, and ecological applications may see explosive growth. Furthermore, based on historical data, every major upgrade is usually preceded by a wave of phased market movements; whales increasing their positions now is a way to pre-position for this expectation.
But there is a key risk point here: leverage! Large funds leveraging to catch the bottom is like 'dancing on the knife's edge.' If ETH continues to decline in the short term and breaks below the liquidation line of the whales, it will trigger passive selling, and at that point, the market may experience 'waterfall-style declines.' This is also why there have been unusual fluctuations in the market recently—both sides are watching the changes in the whales' positions, and even a slight disturbance can trigger panic trading.
Let me share a small trick I use to judge market conditions: focus on two key data points. First, the capital flow on exchanges; if ETH continues to flow out of exchanges, it indicates that long-term holders are increasing their positions, and the downside space is limited; if it continues to flow in, be wary of selling risks. Second, the MACD indicator; currently, the MACD bearish energy for ETH at the hourly level is still being released, but at the four-hour level, it is close to the oversold area, which may lead to a technical rebound. However, be cautious, as a rebound does not mean a reversal; until a key resistance level is broken, one cannot let their guard down.
Regarding operations, I still adhere to the principle of 'watch more, act less.' Retail investors and whales play completely differently; whales bet on next year's upgrade market and can withstand short-term losses; however, retail investors mostly engage in short-term speculation and cannot endure volatility. So don't follow whales to leverage, and don't blindly try to catch the bottom. If you want to position yourself, it is recommended to build positions in batches, for example, testing small positions in the $2800-$2900 range, setting stop losses so that even if the judgment is wrong, the loss won't be too much.
Finally, I remind everyone: there are many opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle, but the risks are even greater. To survive in this market, one must understand technical analysis and pay attention to news and the movements of whales. Follow me@链上标哥 , so you won't get lost!
