7-Day Cycle Market Analysis and Trading Strategy Compilation
I. Core Trend Qualitative Assessment (7-Day Short-Term Judgment)
1. Market Stage: The current situation is only a bearish-market repair bounce; it is in the final wave of the rebound, not a trend reversal. Absolutely no going long.
2. Upper-Turn (Uptrend End) Price Zone:
◦ BTC: Top likely around the 65,000–66,000 range after a push higher;
◦ ETH: The rebound is likely to face resistance on the 1,850–1,900 platform.
3. Overall Direction: After the rebound tops out, a new round of decline will begin. In the late bearish stage, minimize frequent short-term trading as much as possible; focus mainly on standing by and waiting for the bottom.
II. Trading Countermeasures by Cycle
Countermeasure 1: Short-Term Swing Trading (within 7 days; 6-star high priority)
BTC (Bitcoin)
• Short entry range: 65,000 ~ 66,000
• Take-profit target: 54,500
• Stop-loss / defensive line: 70,500
ETH (Ethereum)
• Short entry range: 1,850 ~ 1,900
• Take-profit target: 1,400
• Stop-loss / defensive line: 2,100
Countermeasure 2: Medium-Short Term (1–2 weeks)
1. Spot Grid Strategy
◦ Range: 58,500 ~ 65,500, with orders placed in 8 layers;
◦ Rules: Use only a spot grid—no need to set take-profit or stop-loss. Do not recommend grid trading for long/short contracts.
2. Medium-Term Long-Line Positioning (1 month or more)
◦ Time threshold: True bottom positioning requires waiting at least one quarter;
◦ Suitable for: Not recommended for those with unstable mindset or who cannot hold long-term.
Countermeasure 3: Medium-Long Term (quarter/half-year horizon)
1) Monthly chart bearish logic
BTC’s June monthly candle closed as a bearish “headless, legless” long red/black? (actually: an open-to-close big bearish candle with no long wicks), indicating technical pressure. In July, it is highly likely to continue a significant drop, with a potential deep target around 47,000.
The U.S. stock market is currently only rebounding weakly; if it cannot keep making new highs this month, global risk assets will face intense volatility.
2) Probability forecast for BTC bear-market bottom (within 6 months)
Bottom range | Downside probability
58,000–60,000 | 10%
52,000–55,000 | 30%
43,000–48,000 | 41% (highest probability)
29,000–39,000 | 19%
3) DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) & dip-buying range plan
BTC
• DCA start line: below 60,000 USDT; DCA in batches on a monthly/weekly basis;
• High-quality dip-buying range: 39,500 ~ 58,000;
• Core conclusion: When the price falls into the “40k-range,” it is a high-quality opportunity for building positions.
ETH
• DCA start line: below 1,500 USDT;
• High-quality dip-buying range: below 1,000 USDT.
I. Core Trend Qualitative Assessment (7-Day Short-Term Judgment)
1. Market Stage: The current situation is only a bearish-market repair bounce; it is in the final wave of the rebound, not a trend reversal. Absolutely no going long.
2. Upper-Turn (Uptrend End) Price Zone:
◦ BTC: Top likely around the 65,000–66,000 range after a push higher;
◦ ETH: The rebound is likely to face resistance on the 1,850–1,900 platform.
3. Overall Direction: After the rebound tops out, a new round of decline will begin. In the late bearish stage, minimize frequent short-term trading as much as possible; focus mainly on standing by and waiting for the bottom.
II. Trading Countermeasures by Cycle
Countermeasure 1: Short-Term Swing Trading (within 7 days; 6-star high priority)
BTC (Bitcoin)
• Short entry range: 65,000 ~ 66,000
• Take-profit target: 54,500
• Stop-loss / defensive line: 70,500
ETH (Ethereum)
• Short entry range: 1,850 ~ 1,900
• Take-profit target: 1,400
• Stop-loss / defensive line: 2,100
Countermeasure 2: Medium-Short Term (1–2 weeks)
1. Spot Grid Strategy
◦ Range: 58,500 ~ 65,500, with orders placed in 8 layers;
◦ Rules: Use only a spot grid—no need to set take-profit or stop-loss. Do not recommend grid trading for long/short contracts.
2. Medium-Term Long-Line Positioning (1 month or more)
◦ Time threshold: True bottom positioning requires waiting at least one quarter;
◦ Suitable for: Not recommended for those with unstable mindset or who cannot hold long-term.
Countermeasure 3: Medium-Long Term (quarter/half-year horizon)
1) Monthly chart bearish logic
BTC’s June monthly candle closed as a bearish “headless, legless” long red/black? (actually: an open-to-close big bearish candle with no long wicks), indicating technical pressure. In July, it is highly likely to continue a significant drop, with a potential deep target around 47,000.
The U.S. stock market is currently only rebounding weakly; if it cannot keep making new highs this month, global risk assets will face intense volatility.
2) Probability forecast for BTC bear-market bottom (within 6 months)
Bottom range | Downside probability
58,000–60,000 | 10%
52,000–55,000 | 30%
43,000–48,000 | 41% (highest probability)
29,000–39,000 | 19%
3) DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) & dip-buying range plan
BTC
• DCA start line: below 60,000 USDT; DCA in batches on a monthly/weekly basis;
• High-quality dip-buying range: 39,500 ~ 58,000;
• Core conclusion: When the price falls into the “40k-range,” it is a high-quality opportunity for building positions.
ETH
• DCA start line: below 1,500 USDT;
• High-quality dip-buying range: below 1,000 USDT.