Late last night there was a burst of violent upside momentum. BTC went from around 61,200 straight up to a high of 64,600+, and ETH moved from around 1,750 to about 1,830. In the past 24 hours, the total crypto liquidations across the whole network were about $392 million, of which short positions accounted for about $112 million. The direction is very clear—shorts were collectively counterattacked and wiped out. 1. BTC: The 4-hour upswing is accelerating and extending further, but short-term overbought signals have already appeared. The low point of this rebound formed around 57,720 near July 1. After that, it gradually lifted. Structurally, the 4-hour upward leg that started from 57,720 is still extending. Last night it broke through the 64,000 round-number level and set a new high for this rebound at 64,691.
But note a few signals:
Price has touched the upper band of the 4-hour Bollinger band, which is a typical signal of short-term overbought. After surging late last night, it pulled back, indicating that there is indeed resistance near the upper band.
On a daily timeframe, it’s already six straight green candles. After continuous bullish assaults, profit-taking has accumulated a fair amount.
On an hourly basis, although price keeps rising steadily relying on the Bollinger mid-band, with highs continually moving higher, this is a healthy pullback rhythm of “advance three steps and retreat one.” However, the slope has started to slow down.
Key price levels
Support below: 63,000–63,200 (retest zone after the breakout), 62,200–61,200 (the lifeline range for this upswing)
Resistance overhead: 64,600–65,000 (previous high zone), 65,500 (recent key suppression level)
Key line: 62,200. As long as price doesn’t fall below this range, the larger bullish structure remains intact.
MACD: On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD is still opening upward above the zero line, but the red histogram bars have started to flatten. Bullish momentum has moved from the “explosion” phase into a “maintenance” phase—continued acceleration will require fresh volume.
II. ETH: The first retest after breaking 1,800—ETH’s latest price is 1,802.79, the 24h high is 1,809.87, and the low is 1,793.96. Late last night, it also broke through the 1,800 whole-number level in sync, with a peak near 1,830. It is now retesting and consolidating around 1,800 for confirmation.
Structure comparison
ETH’s volatility is clearly greater than BTC’s—this rebound started from the 1,500 area and has already gained about 300 points (20%). On a daily timeframe, after ETH recaptured the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 1,704, it is now approaching the daily super-trend resistance near 1,807.
The current price is 1,802, exactly bouncing back and forth around the 1,800 whole-number level. From the 4-hour timeframe, price has already moved above the short-term moving averages, but the heavy suppression from the intermediate- to long-term moving averages above still remains.
Key price levels
Support below: 1,780–1,800 (the retest zone after the breakout), 1,750 (the key defense level for this rebound)
Resistance overhead: 1,830–1,850 (previous high zone), 1,900 (the next psychological level)
ETH/BTC ratio: currently about 0.0281 (1,802/64,171). It has been repaired from last week, but it is still not close enough to 0.03+.
III. News backdrop: three driving forces in combination
Trump’s calls + expectations for strategic reserves
Trump calls himself a “crypto die-hard” and keeps pushing forward with the strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. Although the plan faces internal hurdles such as department-level power struggles and issues of legal authorization, the president-level public remarks have an extremely direct effect on market sentiment—after the news was released, BTC saw a V-shaped reversal; after dipping below $62,000 during the day, it rebounded more than 4% at one point.
Strategy’s sell-off absorbed by the market
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, raising about $216 million in cash. This was originally a bearish factor, but the market reaction is interesting—after BTC briefly fell to around $61.3k, it quickly rebounded to near $64k. This suggests the market had already priced in the news in advance; the sell-off instead became a trigger for “bearish news fully digested.”
Cooling inflation expectations
U.S. inflation expectation indicators have fallen; the 2-year breakeven inflation rate dropped below 2%, and WTI oil prices slipped to levels before the outbreak of the Iran war. This eases concerns about the Fed raising rates further and supports risk appetite.
Derivative-driven short squeezes
Over the past few weeks, shorts kept adding to positions, and the funding rate has remained skewed bearish. The rally late last night swept through the dense sell-stop orders above, triggering a cascading forced liquidation “fuel effect”—shorts closing their positions became fuel for the bulls’ push higher. Within 4 hours, short liquidations totaled $112 million, further accelerating a near-vertical price surge.
IV. Overall assessment: the current structural position is:
The 4-hour upward leg starting from 57,720 is still extending. The daily chart shows six straight green candles, confirming the bullish trend. But in the short term, there are two constraints:
Suppression from the upper band of the 4-hour Bollinger band—when price touches the upper band, it usually sees a pullback or sideways consolidation to repair.
RSI is overbought—after a sharp surge, indicators need to cool off
Market divergence comes down to this: one group believes 64,000 is a temporary top and that it will pull back to 62,000–63,000 in the short term. The other group believes that once 64,000 is broken, the upside space is already open, and the next target is 65,500–66,000.
My take: I lean toward a scenario where, after pushing higher, it first pulls back to repair. After a sharp rise, continuing upward directly requires larger momentum and, so far, there’s no visible new incremental catalyst. As long as the pullback between 63,000 and 63,500 holds and doesn’t break, the bullish structure remains healthy.