When Will the Crypto Bull Market Arrive? (July 2026 Perspective)
My take: The market is already in the early phase of a bull market (the bottom). The real major upswing is likely to fully unfold from the second half of 2026 to the first half of 2027.
1. The Current Cycle Stage
Bitcoin halving cycle: After the April 2024 halving, historical patterns suggest that the bull market peak typically occurs 12–18 months after the halving (i.e., Oct 2025–Oct 2026).
Current signals:
Wait for Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly lines to form a second local top.
Institutional capital (ETFs, RWA, stablecoins) continues to flow in.
On-chain data (TVL, active addresses) is clearly rebounding.
Late 2025 to the first half of 2026 is the accumulation period.
The second half of 2026 enters the main upswing phase.
2. Bull Market Timing Forecast
Most likely window:
2026 Q3–Q4 (July–December): Main upswing kicks off (highest probability).
2027 Q1–Q2: Peak period (the most feverish stage).
Catalysts:
A mid-term US Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Large-scale rollout of RWA and AI Agents
Clearer regulation (structure bill)
3. Timelines Under Different Scenarios
Conservative scenario (a mild bull): Significant rise starts in 2026 Q4; the market tops in 2027 Q2.
Neutral scenario (a standard bull): The market starts rising from 2026 Q3; it reaches a climax in 2027 Q1.
Optimistic scenario (a super bull): The market enters a frenzy as early as 2026 Q3–Q4.
My baseline forecast: The second half of 2026 (especially Sep–Dec) is the best time for positioning and holding. The first half of 2027 is the realization period.
Advice for those still holding cash:
Start buying now: Buy spot in batches of core targets (VIRTUAL, SYRUP, JUP, CFG, Lista, SIGN, ZAMA, PENDLE, FET, PLUME, etc.).
Cash reserves: Keep 10–15% cash and add more on clear pullbacks.
The bull market start time may be pushed back or brought forward depending on macro events.
Short-term pullbacks (10–30%) are normal—be mentally prepared.
Buying in batches + long-term holding is the safest strategy.
The bull market is already underway, it’s just still in the early stage. Stay patient—the bull market is worth waiting for.
My take: The market is already in the early phase of a bull market (the bottom). The real major upswing is likely to fully unfold from the second half of 2026 to the first half of 2027.
1. The Current Cycle Stage
Bitcoin halving cycle: After the April 2024 halving, historical patterns suggest that the bull market peak typically occurs 12–18 months after the halving (i.e., Oct 2025–Oct 2026).
Current signals:
Wait for Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly lines to form a second local top.
Institutional capital (ETFs, RWA, stablecoins) continues to flow in.
On-chain data (TVL, active addresses) is clearly rebounding.
Late 2025 to the first half of 2026 is the accumulation period.
The second half of 2026 enters the main upswing phase.
2. Bull Market Timing Forecast
Most likely window:
2026 Q3–Q4 (July–December): Main upswing kicks off (highest probability).
2027 Q1–Q2: Peak period (the most feverish stage).
Catalysts:
A mid-term US Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Large-scale rollout of RWA and AI Agents
Clearer regulation (structure bill)
3. Timelines Under Different Scenarios
Conservative scenario (a mild bull): Significant rise starts in 2026 Q4; the market tops in 2027 Q2.
Neutral scenario (a standard bull): The market starts rising from 2026 Q3; it reaches a climax in 2027 Q1.
Optimistic scenario (a super bull): The market enters a frenzy as early as 2026 Q3–Q4.
My baseline forecast: The second half of 2026 (especially Sep–Dec) is the best time for positioning and holding. The first half of 2027 is the realization period.
Advice for those still holding cash:
Start buying now: Buy spot in batches of core targets (VIRTUAL, SYRUP, JUP, CFG, Lista, SIGN, ZAMA, PENDLE, FET, PLUME, etc.).
Cash reserves: Keep 10–15% cash and add more on clear pullbacks.
The bull market start time may be pushed back or brought forward depending on macro events.
Short-term pullbacks (10–30%) are normal—be mentally prepared.
Buying in batches + long-term holding is the safest strategy.
The bull market is already underway, it’s just still in the early stage. Stay patient—the bull market is worth waiting for.