A rebound of 8% over four days! Signs that the ETF’s ten-day losing streak has hit a turning point have emerged. A guide to tiered positioning on the main storyline for the first week of July｜7.5 Logic Breakdown
Today’s 10 key, major news items (7.5)
BTC keeps ranging around 62640U. Starting from the July low at 57758U, it began four straight rounds of rebound, with a cumulative gain of over 8%. In the past 24 hours, a total of 67,000 traders across the entire network were liquidated, with the total liquidation amount reaching $212 million. The short-squeeze of long positions being closed and short positions being forced out has continued to drive market repair; the Fear & Greed Index has risen to 22.
The BTC spot ETF has ended ten consecutive days of net outflows. On July 2, it recorded a net inflow of $221.7 million, the largest single-day institutional “bottom-fishing” inflow in nearly two months. A clear reversal point in short-term fund flows has officially appeared.
China’s central bank officially announced it will inject a trillion-yuan reverse repo on July 6. Overall market liquidity marginally eases, benefiting major risk assets like gold and crypto, which rise in tandem. Gold’s cumulative gain in July exceeds 4%.
XRP leads the mainstream with a daily gain of 4.1%. Cross-border RWA capital keeps clustering. Expectations for Securitize’s New York Stock Exchange listing funding rollout continue to ferment, and the real-world asset tokenization narrative continues.
a16z announced the successful募集 of its $2.2 billion crypto fund (Fund V). It focuses on stablecoins, cross-border payments, and the RWA track. The signal that long-term industry capital is entering is explicit.
The Ethereum independent research support program is adjusted: the foundation cuts operational budget by 20%. In the short term, the market worries about ETH supply and sell pressure; upside is weaker than BTC and XRP.
Taiwan, China officially implements (the Virtual Assets Business Act), requiring licensed operations across all platforms, 100% cold-storage isolation of user assets—Asia’s crypto compliance map continues to improve.
A crypto token tied to a Trump associate blew up; nearly one million investors collectively lost $3.8 billion. Regulators are stepping up crackdowns on celebrities issuing ‘shitcoin’ tokens, cooling speculative narratives across the board.
OpenAI releases a new generation of reasoning model; demand for computing-power tokens sees a slight rebound. However, the earlier bubble among AI knockoffs hasn’t fully digested—only modest repairs are seen for the leading tokens.
MicroStrategy officially reiterates its core commitment: 840,000 BTC coins locked for the long term, with only small sales for shareholder dividends, dispelling market fears of large-scale sell pressure.
After four straight days of rebound, many people rush to chase with full positions, but overlook that the ETF inflection point is only a short-term marginal improvement. The two major suppressing factors— the Fed’s hawkish tone and regulators’ crackdown on speculative coins—haven’t disappeared. Considering all information today, objectively distinguish between trend repairs and a one-way bull market. Divide targets into three categories: long-term setups, short-term swings, and full exit. Provide a tiered position plan suitable for the first week of July.
I. This rebound has two core drivers, and there is also a clear upside ‘ceiling’
Multiple market tailwinds
Institutional capital flows have turned at a turning point
After several months of ETF redemption waves finally ends, professional institutions gradually bottom-fish in batches from the left side. Combined with a16z’s multi-billion-dollar crypto fund arriving, long-term industry capital begins to enter steadily, and bottom chips continue to accumulate.
Macro liquidity marginally easing
A trillion-yuan reverse repo injection from the central bank eases global liquidity contraction concerns. Gold surges across the board, improving risk appetite in the crypto market;
MicroStrategy’s locked-in commitment eliminates panic over large corporate sell-offs.
Asia compliance regulatory rollout
Taiwan’s complete virtual asset legislation is rolled out. Globally, compliance trading venues continue to expand, and the RWA cross-border settlement track’s long-term value is increasingly recognized by capital.
The core bearish factor that limits upside height
The Fed keeps its high interest-rate stance unchanged
Officials continuously release hawkish signals; expectations for rate cuts later in the year remain delayed. The holding costs for non-interest-bearing crypto assets are relatively high, so institutions won’t consistently chase upside in large scale.
Tighter regulation on speculative themes
There are cases of celebrities issuing knockoff tokens with massive losses. Regulators around the world tighten controls on MEME and air coins at the same time. Funds for purely hype-driven small coins continue to flee, with no sustained upward momentum.
ETH faces near-term fundamental pressure
Budget cuts by the foundation have caused market divergence. There are sell-pressure expectations from unlocks of on-chain staking. In the long run, rebound strength remains weaker than main-track assets like BTC and XRP.
II. Practical portfolio layering plan by track
【Long-term core main line: buy on pullbacks for sustained low entries—XRP】
Support at 1.13U, resistance at 1.24U
Logic: Securitize listing plus Asia compliance rollout—there is a strong demand for tokenization of cross-border tangible assets that remains stable and is not sharply impacted by short-term macro sentiment shocks. Institutional capital continues to form tight groups.
Action: Allocate 25% of total capital. Build the position in two batches within 1.15U; if it falls below 1.10U, stop out. Take partial profits on half the core position in stages above 1.22U. Do not add any large positions in July.
【Hold the core position; trim in batches during the rebound: BTC spot】
Support at 61,500 as a short-term watershed; strong support at 60,800. Resistance at 63,200 and 64,000.
Action: Keep the existing 30% core position unchanged; don’t open new longs above 62,800. If it pulls back below 61,200, add slightly. Keep the total BTC position at no more than 40%.
【Short-term core low-position swing game: AI computing power leader】
Support at 61U, resistance at 67U
Logic: OpenAI’s new model drives a repair in demand for computing power, but the bubble in the sector has not fully cleared. It’s suitable for quick in-and-out trades, not long-term holding.
Action: Only allocate 8% short-term trading capital. Buy on dips around 63U; take full profits in the 66–67 range. If it breaks below 60U, exit immediately.
【Fully clear out on any rebound to avoid risk】
ETH, and all kinds of AI meme/air coins
ETH faces expected sell pressure in its fundamentals. Earlier hype among smaller and mid-sized AI tokens has already priced in valuations. During rebounds, they lag; on declines, they underperform. There is no long-term allocation value—cut the position by half on the rebound.
MEME, celebrity-themed ‘shitcoin’ concepts
Regulators focus on the targets being rectified; liquidity keeps drying up. After the行情 ends, prices will once again drift deeply lower—fully clear out and exit.
High-leverage futures positions
Weekend market volatility amplifies, and the risk of two-way liquidations for both longs and shorts rises. Conservative investors should stay in cash; only small funds can be tried with very low leverage within 5x.
【Balanced hedging with a tiny allocation: BNB】
Support at 556, resistance at 579. Strong compliance barriers of global top platforms are solid. Allocate 12% to balance the account’s volatility—only for hedging, not actively adding.
III. July’s first week: the 4 iron rules for position control
Do not treat a single day’s ETF inflow as a trend reversal. It only indicates a marginal improvement in short-term capital. Above, 63,200 coins are trapped in thick order blocks—no chasing at full position.
Total position strictly controlled within 50%; keep 50% in stablecoin cash. Wait for speeches by Fed officials and the rollout of Asia regulatory details before adjusting the layout.
Capital concentrates on the main track and reduces diversified holdings: allocate only to BTC and XRP as the two long-term tracks; AI computing power is only participated in with a light short-term allocation.
Differentiate between the industry main theme and pure speculative themes. Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has long-term deployment scenarios, while MEME and celebrity tokens are only short-term sentiment炒作. Allocation weights are strictly separated.
The four-day rebound is a bottom bounce driven by a dual positive resonance: institutions bottom-fishing and liquidity easing. It is not the start of a new bull market. There are clear pressure levels in the short term. Keep positions and wait to buy on compliance main themes without emotionally chasing. Smoothly get through the dense news window in early July.
Are you buying XRP on dips today—are you focusing on the mainstream, or holding and waiting for a pullback? Leave your entry levels in the comments to exchange ideas.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is only an objective market news recap and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Crypto assets are subject to extremely high volatility. Please control position size rationally and set stop-losses strictly.