July is the critical month for the crypto bull market to kick off. The Clarity Act passes, and the bear market will flip soon!
1. The core of the Clarity Act is to lay out, all at once, the most chaotic issues of the past: which assets fall under the SEC and which fall under the CFTC; stablecoins, exchanges, DeFi, and non-custodial services—what rules they should operate under. What institutions fear most is not volatility, but uncertainty. As long as the regulatory boundaries remain unclear, large capital won’t dare to truly move in. Exchanges, funds, banks, and market makers will keep getting stuck in the gray area. So Clarity isn’t just ordinary policy—it’s the institutional gateway into the U.S. crypto market.
2. If July can move forward smoothly, BTC, ETH, SOL, stablecoins, custody, exchanges, and on-chain finance will all benefit from compliance. This isn’t a simple positive for one coin; it’s the U.S. formally bringing crypto assets into the financial system.
3. The problem is time is very tight. Before Congress recesses in August, the Senate schedule is already packed with bills on defense, agriculture, housing, and more. If Clarity can’t pass in July, it may well be pushed to after the November election. The key sticking points right now are anti-money-laundering requirements, DeFi regulation, a safe harbor for non-custodial developers, and the moral constraints on government officials trading coins. On the surface, these are technical provisions. In essence, it’s two parties competing for control of the crypto industry’s narrative and influence. Now crypto policy has become a political bargaining chip.
If Clarity suddenly lands, the crypto market will no longer be a wild-growth free-for-all—it will be formally integrated into the U.S. financial system. The U.S. will also further gain control over global crypto pricing power and rule-making power.
4. Current predictions in the market suggest the chance of passage this year is only around 40%, but considering recent large-scale institutional allocation to stablecoins, Wall Street’s deep involvement in crypto, and the high-profile attendance of U.S. officials at the Bitcoin conference, my personal view is that the probability of passage this year is at least 51%. If there’s truly major progress, the market will be caught off guard, because right now there is simply no sufficient pricing.
#英国FCA发布加密监管框架 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH $SOL
1. The core of the Clarity Act is to lay out, all at once, the most chaotic issues of the past: which assets fall under the SEC and which fall under the CFTC; stablecoins, exchanges, DeFi, and non-custodial services—what rules they should operate under. What institutions fear most is not volatility, but uncertainty. As long as the regulatory boundaries remain unclear, large capital won’t dare to truly move in. Exchanges, funds, banks, and market makers will keep getting stuck in the gray area. So Clarity isn’t just ordinary policy—it’s the institutional gateway into the U.S. crypto market.
2. If July can move forward smoothly, BTC, ETH, SOL, stablecoins, custody, exchanges, and on-chain finance will all benefit from compliance. This isn’t a simple positive for one coin; it’s the U.S. formally bringing crypto assets into the financial system.
3. The problem is time is very tight. Before Congress recesses in August, the Senate schedule is already packed with bills on defense, agriculture, housing, and more. If Clarity can’t pass in July, it may well be pushed to after the November election. The key sticking points right now are anti-money-laundering requirements, DeFi regulation, a safe harbor for non-custodial developers, and the moral constraints on government officials trading coins. On the surface, these are technical provisions. In essence, it’s two parties competing for control of the crypto industry’s narrative and influence. Now crypto policy has become a political bargaining chip.
If Clarity suddenly lands, the crypto market will no longer be a wild-growth free-for-all—it will be formally integrated into the U.S. financial system. The U.S. will also further gain control over global crypto pricing power and rule-making power.
4. Current predictions in the market suggest the chance of passage this year is only around 40%, but considering recent large-scale institutional allocation to stablecoins, Wall Street’s deep involvement in crypto, and the high-profile attendance of U.S. officials at the Bitcoin conference, my personal view is that the probability of passage this year is at least 51%. If there’s truly major progress, the market will be caught off guard, because right now there is simply no sufficient pricing.
#英国FCA发布加密监管框架 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH $SOL