XRP enters the final quarter under heavy pressure after a sharp sell-off erased most of the previous gains. The decline in Q4 places the altcoin on track to close 2025 in negative territory.
Nonetheless, there is still hope that buying activity from investors could attempt to reverse the momentum before the end of the year.
Holder XRP Sell Below Cost
Data on realized profit and loss on-chain shows that selling activity in Q4 was very aggressive. XRP holders exited their positions at a loss, indicating a weakening of confidence. Typically, investors in large-cap tokens prefer to hold when prices drop, as they believe the market will recover rather than immediately realize losses.
This cycle is different. Selling at a loss indicates high uncertainty regarding XRP's prospects in the near term. This behavior shows that risk-averse attitudes are now greater than long-term confidence, leading to continued downward pressure throughout this quarter.
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The context of XRP's performance generally highlights its challenges. The current market cycle threatens to end two consecutive years of positive annual returns. In 2023, XRP rallied 81%, then soared 238% in 2024 due to improving regulatory certainty and speculative demand.
In contrast, performance in 2025 is actually weaker. If the current price level continues to hold, XRP may end this year with a decline of around 11%. This reversal suggests that changes in macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment could thwart the previously strong historical trend.
Although prices are falling, activity on the XRP Ledger actually decreased at the end of December. Network data recorded the number of active transactional addresses dropping to a monthly low of 34,005 addresses. This decreasing participation indicates a renewed weakness in interest from both retail and institutional users.
High transaction activity usually aligns with improving demand. Conversely, low usage can strengthen downward price trends as it impacts liquidity and reduces utility-based interest. A decline at the end of this year could also reflect positioning strategies for 2026, not just short-term speculative actions.
XRP is trading around US$1.85 at the time of publication, down 11% since the beginning of 2025. To neutralize annual losses, this token needs to recover to the US$2.10 level. If this level is reached, XRP could close this year at break-even, thus maintaining its long-term performance record.
However, the risk of decline still exists if market conditions worsen. If XRP fails to hold at US$1.85, the price could slip to around US$1.70. Such downward movement would invalidate the bullish scenario and confirm a negative annual close, thus extending uncertainty into early 2026.
The recovery opportunity heavily relies on support defense at US$1.85 and increasing market participation. If this level can be maintained, XRP has the potential to rebound towards US$1.94. Breaking through that resistance is crucial for the US$2.00 area to become new support, thus overcoming the last hurdle towards the US$2.10 target.