Tom Lee recently stated that the price of Bitcoin may still soar above 100,000 USD before the end of 2025, which is considered a bold prediction, especially as Bitcoin is moving within a narrow range and the driving momentum seems to be weakening. Initially, the market appeared to be unprepared, large capital flows began to weaken, long-term holders were selling, and price movements remained constrained.
However, Bitcoin still has one path that could make Lee's prediction come true, and this path does not depend on new buying but rather focuses on positioning instead.
Large capital and confident groups remain obstacles.
The first problem with Tom Lee's Bitcoin price prediction, as emphasized on CNBC, comes from the flow of funds.
Chaikin Money Flow or CMF, which tracks how large funds flow in and out of the market, remains weak. Between December 17 and December 23, the price of Bitcoin moved slightly up, but the CMF decreased. This is a negative sign as it shows that large players are reducing their risk even though the price remains stable.
The CMF index value has also dropped sharply after December 21, decreasing more than 200% before recovering about 68%. Although the recovery seems to be a positive sign, the CMF is still below zero, which means that the inflow of funds remains weak and has not strengthened.
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The second resistance comes from long holders, which are wallets that historically sell later, not earlier.
Throughout the past month, the net change in long position holders has remained continuously negative. On November 23, long holders sold about 97,800 BTC per day, and on December 23, that figure increased to nearly 279,000 BTC in a single day, representing an increase of 185%.
This is a significant increase in coin distribution from confident holders. When large capital flows and long holders lean negatively, continuous upward movements become more challenging.
The only way Bitcoin can still reach 100,000 USD.
Despite facing these pressures, Bitcoin has not run out of options. However, this path relies on unexpected momentum.
As the market is currently heavily tilted towards the short side.
When considering the liquidation map over a 30-day period, it shows that there is short leverage waiting for liquidation accumulated at around USD3.41 billion, while long leverage is approximately USD2.14 billion. This imbalance means that over 60% of the leverage is betting on the price going down.
This point is crucial because even though buying pressure is weak, prices can still rise from forced liquidations, as seen in the past. Simply put, Bitcoin does not need new buyers, but the market requires the short side to be wrong in their predictions.
If a rapid jump occurs, it will force the short side to close positions immediately, resulting in automatic buying pressure and potentially leading to further liquidations, even though the actual buying pressure might still be weak.
This is the only possible mechanism left for a rapid upward adjustment, and the main cluster range for short liquidations is between USD88,390 and USD96,070. Therefore, it is time to watch whether the Bitcoin price can move into this zone.
The price level of Bitcoin that determines whether Tom Lee is correct or not.
To create a short squeeze, Bitcoin needs to break through certain price levels first.
The first zone is around USD91,220. If the price can consistently rise above this level, it will result in the liquidation of lower leverage short positions, which will help turn short-term momentum back to positive.
But the real pressure will be close to the level of USD97,820, as this level has pressed the price multiple times since mid-November and coincides with the point where the densest short liquidation cluster exists. If the price breaks through this point, the short leverage worth USD3.41 billion will mostly be at immediate risk.
If this collapse begins, Bitcoin could move quickly to the psychological level of 100,380 USD without needing severe capital inflows or support from long-term investors, but at the same time, the point that invalidates this situation is also clear.
If Bitcoin cannot reclaim the level of 91,220 USD and continues to swing sideways, the weakness of the CMF and selling pressure from long-term holders remain key factors. Therefore, short position squeezes have no chance to start, and Bitcoin's price target as predicted by Tom Lee remains out of reach. Currently, Bitcoin is caught between heavy selling and leveraged positioning.
Whether this forecast will happen depends on only one thing: whether the short positions will be forced to close.
