Polymarket racked up a massive $6 billion in trading volume during the World Cup—so much that it even brought in 60% new users from outside the crypto circle.
It indeed proves that prediction markets work with mainstream audiences.
But as investors, we need to stay calm and look through the data to get to the essence—traffic doesn’t equal value capture.
Compare the financial figures from May: Kalshi, which takes the compliant route, may have lagged in trading volume, but it generated $137 million in fees—nearly 5 times Polymarket’s $28 million.
In simple terms, Polymarket shows how big this business can be; Kalshi confirms who can actually make the money and get it into their pockets.
So, is this space structural growth or an event-driven bubble?
It’s still too early to draw a conclusion.
The real litmus test will be the data after the events wrap up from July 20 to July 31.
If daily average trading volume can still hold steady above $100 million, then the underlying logic of this market is firmly established;
if it rapidly shrinks to below $50 million, then the World Cup only brought a short-lived influx of traffic.
Once the tide goes out, the eventual winner is most likely the compliant model with a clear business structure—one that can truly capture economic value.
It indeed proves that prediction markets work with mainstream audiences.
But as investors, we need to stay calm and look through the data to get to the essence—traffic doesn’t equal value capture.
Compare the financial figures from May: Kalshi, which takes the compliant route, may have lagged in trading volume, but it generated $137 million in fees—nearly 5 times Polymarket’s $28 million.
In simple terms, Polymarket shows how big this business can be; Kalshi confirms who can actually make the money and get it into their pockets.
So, is this space structural growth or an event-driven bubble?
It’s still too early to draw a conclusion.
The real litmus test will be the data after the events wrap up from July 20 to July 31.
If daily average trading volume can still hold steady above $100 million, then the underlying logic of this market is firmly established;
if it rapidly shrinks to below $50 million, then the World Cup only brought a short-lived influx of traffic.
Once the tide goes out, the eventual winner is most likely the compliant model with a clear business structure—one that can truly capture economic value.