CRV increased by 16% in more than 4 days, but the long-term trend still leans towards decline, as volume signals and market structure have not shown a sustainable reversal.
The price of Curve DAO token (CRV) has fallen below 0.37 USD and then bounced back, creating a sense of quick recovery. However, the short-term price bounce may only be a technical rebound or a 'liquidity sweep', especially when important resistance areas have not yet been clearly broken.
MAIN CONTENT
CRV bounced from $0.331 to $0.385 (about 16%) after breaking below $0.37.
The long-term trend remains down, OBV has hardly improved and the moving averages continue to confirm the downtrend.
The $0.372 level has been retested as resistance; the scenario of the price returning below $0.33 still has a high probability.
The 16% bounce of CRV is not enough to confirm a bullish reversal.
The bounce to $0.385 helps CRV regain part of the drop, but has not provided evidence of a reversal as the multi-month downtrend remains intact.
CRV has been in a downtrend since August and the break below $0.37 was expected to pave the way for long-term support around $0.243. Instead of falling deeper, the price only dropped to $0.331 and then bounced back to $0.385, equivalent to about 16% in just over 4 days.
This bounce also coincides with filling an imbalance area on the 6-hour chart. Filling this area may occur as a technical reaction, and does not necessarily mean the market has shifted to a sustainable bullish trend.
Long-term data still leans toward bearish as OBV and MA do not support a bullish trend.
When zooming into longer timeframes, volume indicators and moving averages show that bearish pressure still dominates.
OBV (On-Balance Volume) has shown almost no significant movement, implying that buying pressure has not clearly returned. A strong buying day is unlikely to reverse a downtrend that has lasted for several months.
The moving averages continue to 'follow' price action and reinforce the bearish picture, reflecting that the dominant trend is still downward. Therefore, a rapid increase may only be a technical bounce in a downtrend (bear market rally).
The $0.372 level has been retested and acts as horizontal resistance. A failed retest at this range is often a signal that the risk of further declines remains high.
The bullish scenario is less likely than CRV surpassing $0.4.
CRV temporarily turned $0.372 into support on the 1-hour chart but quickly lost this level, making the scenario of a bullish expansion above $0.4 less likely.
On the 1-hour chart, the bounce has gone slightly above the imbalance area of the 6-hour chart (white box) and briefly 'flipped' $0.372 into support. However, in recent trading hours, sellers have regained the upper hand and pulled the price below this support area.
Therefore, the 'less likely' scenario is that CRV continues to rise, targeting $0.4 and higher. For this scenario to be more credible, the price generally needs to hold above previously lost levels and show continued buying strength, a condition that has not yet been confirmed.
Traders need to be cautious as a quick bounce may be a liquidity grab.
The price bouncing to $0.384 may only aim to attract liquidity before the downtrend continues, as the long-term structure remains unchanged.
The increase to fill the imbalance and test the short-term swing point around $0.384 may be a 'liquidity grab'. In this case, strong short-term volatility may shake out or liquidate short positions, but does not necessarily reverse the trend.
For swing traders, the trading bias should still be bearish until a clear structural breakout signal appears. One possibility mentioned is that CRV could continue to go down and fall back below $0.33, which is a short-term Fibonacci extension.
Conclusion
The 16% bounce of CRV over a few days may create a sense that buyers have found a foothold. However, when assessing the long-term trend, current signals still indicate that the downtrend is dominant and swing traders do not necessarily need to shift to a bullish bias solely based on a quick bounce.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRV's 16% increase a signal of a bullish reversal?
No. The bounce from $0.331 to $0.385 is strong in the short term, but OBV has hardly improved and the long-term downtrend is still reinforced by price structure and moving averages.
How important is the $0.372 level for CRV?
$0.372 is seen as a horizontal resistance area that has been retested after the bounce. Failing to hold this level increases the likelihood of the price continuing to weaken rather than expanding to $0.4.
Why could the bounce to $0.384–$0.385 be a liquidity grab?
Since the price just filled the imbalance area on the 6-hour chart and retested the short-term swing point, this sometimes triggers liquidity around the resistance area before the market returns to the main downtrend.
Can CRV drop below $0.33?
Maybe. $0.33 is mentioned as a short-term Fibonacci extension; if selling pressure continues and $0.372 remains resistance, the scenario of the price returning below $0.33 is still worth noting.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/curve-dao-tang-mac-cu-038-usd/
Thank you for reading this article!
Please Like, Comment and Follow TinTucBitcoin to stay updated with the latest news about the cryptocurrency market and not miss any important information!
$BTC $ETH $BNB $XRP $SOL
