US economy Q3 grows beyond expectations! GDP increases by 4.3% year-on-year, inflation slightly rises but remains controllable, and the Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in January drops below 20%

The US economy showed amazing resilience in the third quarter of 2025! The latest data from the Department of Commerce indicates that the GDP annualized quarterly growth rate increased by 4.3%, the strongest performance in nearly two years. Meanwhile, core inflation slightly rose to 2.9%, but remains within a controllable range. (Background: Wall Street investment banks: The bigger risk next year is not a 'US recession leading to a crash,' but rather 'a crash leading to a US recession.') (Additional context: The US November CPI far below expectations signals a significant cooling of inflation! Bitcoin rebounded to break $89,000, and Ethereum surged close to $3,000.) The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce released the preliminary GDP data for the third quarter on December 23, 2025, indicating that the inflation-adjusted annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP in the US increased by 4.3%, significantly exceeding market expectations (consensus around 3.2%-3.3%), and also better than the revised final growth rate of 3.8% in the second quarter. This is the strongest quarterly growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily driven by a notable acceleration in consumer spending (from 2.5% in the second quarter to 3.5%), a significant rebound in exports (from -1.8% to 8.8%), and positive contributions from government spending and investment. Analysts point out that this data reflects the strong resilience of the US economy in the face of a cooling labor market and policy uncertainties. Inflation slightly rose but remains controllable. Additionally, the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) released on the same day had a preliminary annualized quarterly rate of 2.9%, fully in line with market expectations (consensus 2.9%), but higher than the final value of 2.6% in the second quarter. This shows that the underlying inflation pressure in the third quarter has slightly rebounded, mainly driven by rising service prices, such as housing and medical expenses, as well as non-housing core service prices. However, overall inflation remains close to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. Combining this with previously released monthly PCE data, the upward trend in the quarterly annualized rate indicates that the inflation path still has fluctuations. In response, several institutions, such as Reuters and Bloomberg, reported that this report's results, which met expectations, further strengthened the outlook for a 'soft landing' for the US economy: robust economic growth (GDP 4.3%) at the same time as inflation has not spiraled out of control, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to further adjust policies in 2026. However, some analysts also warned that if tariff policies or other external factors change, core inflation may face upward risks in the fourth quarter. The cryptocurrency market's reaction was relatively muted. After the data release, Bitcoin was still at a low point amidst a downward trend that began yesterday (22), currently reported at $87,750, with a near 24-hour decline of 2.3%; Ethereum's price movement was similar, currently reported at $2,940, with a near 24-hour decline of 3.5%. Bitcoin trend. Source: OKX The probability of a rate cut being paused in January rose to 86.7%. Additionally, after the data release, according to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of continuing to cut rates by 1 basis point in early 2026 (January) has dropped below 20%, with the market leaning towards believing that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance, observing the subsequent developments in the labor market and inflation. Currently, the market's bets on the Fed pausing its rate cut pace in January have reached 86.7%. Related reports: Heavyweight! The SEC of the United States lists Bitcoin mining under the scope of securities law, suing mining company VBit for fraud of $95,600,000. The US Supreme Court's tariff decision countdown, Trump warns in advance of 'serious consequences,' and the market senses uneasy signals? Visa launches USDC stablecoin settlement in the US, with two banks cooperating to break the weekend vacuum. "US economy Q3 grows beyond expectations! GDP increases by 4.3% year-on-year, inflation slightly rises but remains controllable, and the Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in January drops below 20%" This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).