The Bitcoin (BTC) network hashrate has fallen by 4% over the last 30 days, marking the largest decline in nearly 2 years.
At the same time, the increase in volatility and the drop in prices highlight the growing stress among miners as profits diminish. However, according to investment management firm VanEck, miner capitulation may signal a market bottom.
Bitcoin's mining power declines due to price weakness and shutdowns in China
The ChainCheck report on Bitcoin by VanEck, published in mid-December 2025, noted that the 4% decline in the network's hash power was the largest since April 2024. This contraction comes amid a difficult month for Bitcoin, with the price dropping nearly 9%.
Additionally, volatility has spiked, pushing the realized 30-day volatility above 45%, the highest level since April 2025.
“We usually expect the rate to drop during large pullbacks in Bitcoin price,” wrote Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush in a post.
Beyond price-related pressures, Bitcoin's hashrate was also affected by events in China. Last week, BeInCrypto reported that approximately 400,000 machines were disconnected in the Xinjiang province.
The shutdown eliminated an estimated capacity of 1.3 GW and had a considerable impact on the network. China's computing power decreased by approximately 100 exahashes per second in just 24 hours.
“This is likely due to power generation shifting to meet AI demand and may result in the removal of up to 10% of the hash power of the Bitcoin network,” analysts noted.
Meanwhile, the economy for miners has also worsened due to Bitcoin's price performance. According to VanEck, the breakeven electricity price for a Bitmain S19 XP miner from the 2022 era dropped from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025, representing a 36% drop.
“Although profitability for miners has been poor recently, many entities continue to mine despite periods of poor economy because they believe in the future of Bitcoin. To sustain the long-term hashrate of the Bitcoin network, we believe that up to 13 countries are mining with support from their central governments,” added Sigel and Bush.
Historical data indicates a bullish turn.
Despite recent pressure, VanEck highlighted that the decline in hashrate could be a “contrarian bullish signal.” According to data since 2014, the report found that future Bitcoin returns tend to be stronger when the network hashrate is decreasing.
90-day returns for BTC were positive about 65% of the time when the hashrate had decreased in the previous 30 days, compared to 54% during periods of increasing hashrate.
Moreover, average 180-day returns were slightly higher when the hashrate was falling, at approximately 20.5%, compared to 20.2% when it was rising. This trend also holds in the long term.
“In the 346 days since 2014, when the 90-day hashrate growth was negative, future BTC returns at 180 days were positive (77%) of the time, with an average return of (+72%). Outside of those days, future 180-day returns were positive (~61%) of the time and on average (+48%),” analysts revealed.
In the technical aspect, market observers have also pointed out possible signs of a bottom. Market analysts, including Ted Pillows, have identified a bullish divergence of 3 days for Bitcoin, a pattern that marked market bottoms in its two previous appearances.
“The bullish divergence of BTC in 3D is already confirmed. When this happened the last 2 times, Bitcoin formed a bottom,” Pillows stated in a post.
It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will eventually experience another rally. For now, the leading cryptocurrency remains under pressure. BeInCrypto data shows that Bitcoin was trading at $88,066 at the time of publication, with a slight pullback of 1.01% in the last 24 hours.