Entering Christmas week, the global market's initial response does not belong to the cryptocurrency market. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, risk aversion sentiment has rapidly intensified, with gold and silver taking the lead in the market, continuously breaking historical highs and becoming the hottest destination for funds.
In contrast, the cryptocurrency market appears unusually quiet, with Bitcoin not following the macro tailwinds to soar but rather remaining within the 88,000-89,000 fluctuation range, lacking the offensive posture expected before the holiday.
It is against this backdrop that the question of whether Bitcoin will experience a Christmas rally (Santa Rally) has once again become a topic of repeated discussion in the market. The so-called Christmas rally is originally a seasonal phenomenon in traditional financial markets, referring to the phase of rising risk assets driven by improved sentiment and changes in liquidity around Christmas. However, in the cryptocurrency market, this rule has never been considered stable. This year's Bitcoin, whether it is 'falling behind' amid rising risk aversion or quietly building strength within a high range, still needs to return to real price behavior and fund structure to find answers.