The CLARITY Act still has a chance, but the timeline is now very tight.
The Senate recess starts August 10, 2026, so July is the critical window. The bill still needs Senate floor approval, likely requiring 60 votes, including support from at least some Democrats. It also still has to be aligned with the Senate Agriculture version and the House version. Because of this, missing the pre-recess window would likely reduce the odds of passage this year. Galaxy’s latest cited estimate appears closer to 50%–60%, while Polymarket odds have fluctuated and may be around the 40%–50% range depending on timing. For crypto, CLARITY is now a high-impact but uncertain catalyst, not a guaranteed near-term event.
Bottom line: If it advances in July, crypto regulation-linked coins like XRP, XLM, HBAR, LINK, and SOL could benefit. If it slips past August 10, markets may start pricing in a much longer delay.
The Senate recess starts August 10, 2026, so July is the critical window. The bill still needs Senate floor approval, likely requiring 60 votes, including support from at least some Democrats. It also still has to be aligned with the Senate Agriculture version and the House version. Because of this, missing the pre-recess window would likely reduce the odds of passage this year. Galaxy’s latest cited estimate appears closer to 50%–60%, while Polymarket odds have fluctuated and may be around the 40%–50% range depending on timing. For crypto, CLARITY is now a high-impact but uncertain catalyst, not a guaranteed near-term event.
Bottom line: If it advances in July, crypto regulation-linked coins like XRP, XLM, HBAR, LINK, and SOL could benefit. If it slips past August 10, markets may start pricing in a much longer delay.
