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挖矿的小羊
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57,000! A Fed rate-hike script—torn to shreds on the spot by jobs data!
57,000 vs the expected 110,000.
It’s nearly a double difference.
That’s a slap in the face.
Just when everyone was still debating whether the hawkish madman Waller would hike in September—
US employment data directly handed out a loud, decisive, no-mercy slap.
On July 2, the June jobs report was released:
Only 57,000 jobs were added.
The expectation was 110,000.
Even harsher: May’s prior value was revised downward from 172,000 to 129,000.
You think this is a coincidence?
Look at the ADP released the day before—also 98,000, also a flop.
Two separate data sets, using different reporting standards, point to the same direction:
The job market really is cooling down.
But here’s what’s interesting in the data—
the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2%, the lowest since June 2025.
Employment is collapsing, yet the unemployment rate is dropping?
How do you account for that?
It’s simple: the labor force participation rate is likely falling at the same time.
What does that mean?
A large number of Americans are no longer looking for jobs.
They’re outside the employment market, so they don’t count as unemployed.
So the unemployment rate looks “better” on paper.
This is called false prosperity.
Fewer people are job hunting, and fewer openings are being created.
Both sides shrink together.
Once the data came out:
Gold shot straight up, hitting $4,120.
The US dollar index dumped 30 points.
US stock index futures surged collectively.
All assets are doing the same thing:
Pricing in the delay of rate hikes.
Note—delay, not cancellation.
But in this market, as long as there’s no rate hike, it’s good news.
Earlier, the market priced in a September hike.
Now?
That expectation is being withdrawn.
What does this mean for BTC?
The $58,000 level—I’ve always found it awkward.
It’s neither up nor down; both bulls and bears feel uncomfortable.
But last night’s jobs report gave me a judgment:
$58K may be the policy floor for this round of adjustment.
Why?
Because the biggest enemy of interest-free assets has never been regulation, not hackers, not miners selling off—
It’s rate hikes.
Rate hikes raise the cost of capital, and risk assets are hit first.
Once rate-hike expectations fade, BTC’s valuation pressure can loosen.
Why is gold rising so fast?
Because it’s also an interest-free asset.
Same logic: what gold is reflecting, BTC will reflect as well.
Same direction—different magnitude.
57,000 vs the expected 110,000.
It’s nearly a double difference.
That’s a slap in the face.
Just when everyone was still debating whether the hawkish madman Waller would hike in September—
US employment data directly handed out a loud, decisive, no-mercy slap.
On July 2, the June jobs report was released:
Only 57,000 jobs were added.
The expectation was 110,000.
Even harsher: May’s prior value was revised downward from 172,000 to 129,000.
You think this is a coincidence?
Look at the ADP released the day before—also 98,000, also a flop.
Two separate data sets, using different reporting standards, point to the same direction:
The job market really is cooling down.
But here’s what’s interesting in the data—
the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2%, the lowest since June 2025.
Employment is collapsing, yet the unemployment rate is dropping?
How do you account for that?
It’s simple: the labor force participation rate is likely falling at the same time.
What does that mean?
A large number of Americans are no longer looking for jobs.
They’re outside the employment market, so they don’t count as unemployed.
So the unemployment rate looks “better” on paper.
This is called false prosperity.
Fewer people are job hunting, and fewer openings are being created.
Both sides shrink together.
Once the data came out:
Gold shot straight up, hitting $4,120.
The US dollar index dumped 30 points.
US stock index futures surged collectively.
All assets are doing the same thing:
Pricing in the delay of rate hikes.
Note—delay, not cancellation.
But in this market, as long as there’s no rate hike, it’s good news.
Earlier, the market priced in a September hike.
Now?
That expectation is being withdrawn.
What does this mean for BTC?
The $58,000 level—I’ve always found it awkward.
It’s neither up nor down; both bulls and bears feel uncomfortable.
But last night’s jobs report gave me a judgment:
$58K may be the policy floor for this round of adjustment.
Why?
Because the biggest enemy of interest-free assets has never been regulation, not hackers, not miners selling off—
It’s rate hikes.
Rate hikes raise the cost of capital, and risk assets are hit first.
Once rate-hike expectations fade, BTC’s valuation pressure can loosen.
Why is gold rising so fast?
Because it’s also an interest-free asset.
Same logic: what gold is reflecting, BTC will reflect as well.
Same direction—different magnitude.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.