The magic of CVDD is that the BTC price has, in each bear-market bottom over the past 15 years, come infinitely close yet never actually broke below it.
If we categorize the degree of “closeness” as “far / medium / close,” then the closer it is means the nearer it is to the bear-market bottom. And now CVDD is at $46,196, with BTC at $60,000. Compared with other historical bear-market bottoms, its closeness is on the medium-to-slightly-close side.
Since CVDD never retraces and always keeps trending upward. And right now it’s rising at a pace of $244 per 30-day average. So, at that average rate, after 3–4 months CVDD will very likely be higher than $47,000.
This means the BTC in this bear market won’t go below $47,000—it can only get close to it at most.
🚩 If we calculate the “same level” as in 2015, when CVDD is 4.7w, the BTC bottom price is $52,800;
🚩 If we calculate the “same level” as in 2018, when CVDD is 4.7w, the BTC bottom price is $53,500;
🚩 If we calculate the “same level” as in 2022, when CVDD is 4.7w, the BTC bottom price is $49,600;
Based on this inference, the most extreme range for the bear-market bottom in this cycle is roughly between $50,000 and $54,000—not $40,000, $30,000, or even $20,000.
In other words, if you bought $58,000 (5.8w) worth of BTC on June 25th, I can’t say it’s an absolute bottom—but looking back a few years from now, chances are you bought near the bottom.
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All of the inferences above are based on the assumption that CVDD remains effective.
After all, historical data isn’t a crystal ball—it’s only one form of valid reference. Due to an insufficient number of historical samples, there’s a risk of overfitting, which doesn’t mean the bear-market bottom must fall within the range above.
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CVDD is a “bottom valuation model” for BTC. It was proposed by Willy Woo in 2020. Its core idea is to characterize the market bottom using “the USD value of coins that have been spent × the number of days those coins have been held.”
CVDD = cumulative(price × CDD) / (number of days since launch × 6,000,000)
That $6,000,000 is a freely chosen parameter the author came up with by fitting historical bottoms. Meanwhile, each platform also makes slight adjustments to the parameters when presenting CVDD, so the CVDD values you see across different platforms aren’t exactly the same.