Tonight is the last chance to fight it out with the dog-den dealers. At 8:30 tonight, the non-farm payroll data will amplify beta. Tomorrow the US stock market is closed, and the price action is basically dead water.
The recent non-farm payrolls are extremely important—I’ve emphasized this more than once. Yesterday’s ADP already gave a trailer. Why? The Fed is no longer highly certain about rate hikes or cuts; it’s in a state of wavering. So the key factor determining whether rates change or not lies in the data.
When Mr. Powell was in charge, because there was forward guidance, the market could digest expectations early. As long as the data doesn’t deviate too much from expectations, the impact is usually not big. When the data impact isn’t big, people end up focusing on something else.
Now a new chair has come in, so everything needs to be adjusted again. There’s no more forward guidance, and things are more 🦅-leaning. With data becoming more important, people actually pay less attention.
How do we interpret that? I don’t understand.
#非农
The recent non-farm payrolls are extremely important—I’ve emphasized this more than once. Yesterday’s ADP already gave a trailer. Why? The Fed is no longer highly certain about rate hikes or cuts; it’s in a state of wavering. So the key factor determining whether rates change or not lies in the data.
When Mr. Powell was in charge, because there was forward guidance, the market could digest expectations early. As long as the data doesn’t deviate too much from expectations, the impact is usually not big. When the data impact isn’t big, people end up focusing on something else.
Now a new chair has come in, so everything needs to be adjusted again. There’s no more forward guidance, and things are more 🦅-leaning. With data becoming more important, people actually pay less attention.
How do we interpret that? I don’t understand.
#非农