200WMA Heatmap
The chart has already shown: “We have entered the bottom region.”
In essence, it represents the average cost basis of all participants over the past 4 years.
Because the time span is long enough, it filters out all short-term noise and reflects only the true long-term trend.
Imagine this: over the past 4 years, for everyone who bought big oranges, their average cost is roughly on this line.
Price far above the moving average: most people are in profit, and the market faces selling pressure to take gains.
Price falls below the moving average: most people are stuck, unable to sell, and the market is running out of sellers—meaning it may be bottoming.
According to real backtesting, the days where the closing price is below the 200WMA account for only about 10% of all trading days.
That’s why, in every bear-market bottom cycle, it tends to be around this line—because once price reaches here, those who were going to sell have already sold, and sell orders dry up.
But the current stage doesn’t mean it just entered and will not go lower, or that an uptrend is about to start.
This “place” refers to the “range.”
After the touch in late 2018, it moved sideways for about 4 months before truly starting.
After the touch in 2022, it also went through the “last sell-off” following the FTX collapse.
On average, after a touch, it still takes another 3–6 months to base and stabilize.$BTC
The chart has already shown: “We have entered the bottom region.”
In essence, it represents the average cost basis of all participants over the past 4 years.
Because the time span is long enough, it filters out all short-term noise and reflects only the true long-term trend.
Imagine this: over the past 4 years, for everyone who bought big oranges, their average cost is roughly on this line.
Price far above the moving average: most people are in profit, and the market faces selling pressure to take gains.
Price falls below the moving average: most people are stuck, unable to sell, and the market is running out of sellers—meaning it may be bottoming.
According to real backtesting, the days where the closing price is below the 200WMA account for only about 10% of all trading days.
That’s why, in every bear-market bottom cycle, it tends to be around this line—because once price reaches here, those who were going to sell have already sold, and sell orders dry up.
But the current stage doesn’t mean it just entered and will not go lower, or that an uptrend is about to start.
This “place” refers to the “range.”
After the touch in late 2018, it moved sideways for about 4 months before truly starting.
After the touch in 2022, it also went through the “last sell-off” following the FTX collapse.
On average, after a touch, it still takes another 3–6 months to base and stabilize.$BTC