$XAU 6月30日全球最大黄金ETF SPDR持仓1005.077吨，持仓无变动。周二现货黄金亚盘跌至七个月低位，低位买盘小幅拉回，但收盘依旧微跌；本季度黄金大跌近18%，季度表现创近年新低，整体多头疲软。
From a fundamentals perspective, the core reason the price of gold has been weakening recently is the dual pressure from the Fed’s high interest-rate expectations and a strong US dollar. The situation in the Middle East has boosted oil prices; inflation concerns are heating up; and the market continues to price in further Fed tightening. Fed officials have also repeatedly reiterated their focus on controlling inflation, further limiting the scope for gold price rebounds.
The long-term logic has not changed. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, diversify reserves, and ongoing global fiscal risks will continue to provide long-term support to gold prices—though in the short run, price action is entirely dominated by the dollar and US Treasury yields.
😾This week’s key focus is ADP and non-farm payroll employment data: if employment remains strong, gold will stay under pressure; only if the data weakens will there be an opportunity for a short-term rebound.
Technically, gold is in a bearish structure with no reversal signals yet. While there is support at lower levels, moving averages overhead are clearly capping price, and market sentiment for going long remains subdued.
Looking ahead, two scenarios are possible: if gold holds below and continues to rebound, it could trigger a phase of corrective action; if it breaks below the recent lows, the bearish trend will likely continue, with short-term trading remaining weak and increased risk for value-buying attempts.
From a fundamentals perspective, the core reason the price of gold has been weakening recently is the dual pressure from the Fed’s high interest-rate expectations and a strong US dollar. The situation in the Middle East has boosted oil prices; inflation concerns are heating up; and the market continues to price in further Fed tightening. Fed officials have also repeatedly reiterated their focus on controlling inflation, further limiting the scope for gold price rebounds.
The long-term logic has not changed. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, diversify reserves, and ongoing global fiscal risks will continue to provide long-term support to gold prices—though in the short run, price action is entirely dominated by the dollar and US Treasury yields.
😾This week’s key focus is ADP and non-farm payroll employment data: if employment remains strong, gold will stay under pressure; only if the data weakens will there be an opportunity for a short-term rebound.
Technically, gold is in a bearish structure with no reversal signals yet. While there is support at lower levels, moving averages overhead are clearly capping price, and market sentiment for going long remains subdued.
Looking ahead, two scenarios are possible: if gold holds below and continues to rebound, it could trigger a phase of corrective action; if it breaks below the recent lows, the bearish trend will likely continue, with short-term trading remaining weak and increased risk for value-buying attempts.
