Seeing this picture, I was completely stunned. The moves of the crypto bros have already gone beyond my understanding……
On a sunny day, William Lu—he took out a mortgage loan of 99.7 million to buy a house. The monthly payment is over 500,000, half of which is interest. And then he says the loan is meant to do arbitrage?
Let’s do the math for everyone: remaining principal is 99.7 million, over 360 periods (30 years). The monthly repayment is roughly 520–540 thousand. Of that, only 2.7–2.8 million is principal, and 2.5–2.7 million is interest—about a 50/50 split.
So basically, this guy pays the bank interest alone of 250,000+ every month. That’s 3 million in interest per year. Over 30 years, total interest is around 90 million—almost the same as the principal.
And then here comes the key point—he says he borrowed the money to do arbitrage?
I thought about it for half a day. I kind of get it, but also don’t. I know the logic of crypto arbitrage: price spreads across different exchanges for arbitrage (“brick trading”), cash-and-carry (spot–futures) arbitrage, funding rate arbitrage, and so on. What kind of annualized return can you realistically get? 10%? 20%?
But what’s the mortgage rate? Roughly: for 99.7 million over 30 years with a monthly payment of about 530,000, the annualized interest rate is around 4.5%.
If the arbitrage gains can reliably cover the mortgage rate, then it’s like the bank is lending you money, and you use it to earn the interest spread—the house is still yours, right? It sounds like that might be the idea……
But the problem is: is crypto arbitrage risk-free? Obviously not. When the market is good, annualized returns might be 20%+; when the market is bad, you might even lose the principal.
A mortgage is rigid—you have to pay 500,000+ every month, no matter whether your arbitrage is profitable. If you can’t pay, the bank won’t care if your arbitrage lost money.
And this is leverage on the scale of a billion. Ordinary people struggle even with a 10 million mortgage; this guy goes straight for 100 million, and still dares to use it for risky investments. How big is his heart?
I can only say: I don’t understand the world of crypto. Some people say this is top-tier financial intelligence—using the bank’s money to make money. Others say it’s playing with fire: once the arbitrage trade goes wrong, it’s an abyss.
What do you think—are they a genius, or crazy?
On a sunny day, William Lu—he took out a mortgage loan of 99.7 million to buy a house. The monthly payment is over 500,000, half of which is interest. And then he says the loan is meant to do arbitrage?
Let’s do the math for everyone: remaining principal is 99.7 million, over 360 periods (30 years). The monthly repayment is roughly 520–540 thousand. Of that, only 2.7–2.8 million is principal, and 2.5–2.7 million is interest—about a 50/50 split.
So basically, this guy pays the bank interest alone of 250,000+ every month. That’s 3 million in interest per year. Over 30 years, total interest is around 90 million—almost the same as the principal.
And then here comes the key point—he says he borrowed the money to do arbitrage?
I thought about it for half a day. I kind of get it, but also don’t. I know the logic of crypto arbitrage: price spreads across different exchanges for arbitrage (“brick trading”), cash-and-carry (spot–futures) arbitrage, funding rate arbitrage, and so on. What kind of annualized return can you realistically get? 10%? 20%?
But what’s the mortgage rate? Roughly: for 99.7 million over 30 years with a monthly payment of about 530,000, the annualized interest rate is around 4.5%.
If the arbitrage gains can reliably cover the mortgage rate, then it’s like the bank is lending you money, and you use it to earn the interest spread—the house is still yours, right? It sounds like that might be the idea……
But the problem is: is crypto arbitrage risk-free? Obviously not. When the market is good, annualized returns might be 20%+; when the market is bad, you might even lose the principal.
A mortgage is rigid—you have to pay 500,000+ every month, no matter whether your arbitrage is profitable. If you can’t pay, the bank won’t care if your arbitrage lost money.
And this is leverage on the scale of a billion. Ordinary people struggle even with a 10 million mortgage; this guy goes straight for 100 million, and still dares to use it for risky investments. How big is his heart?
I can only say: I don’t understand the world of crypto. Some people say this is top-tier financial intelligence—using the bank’s money to make money. Others say it’s playing with fire: once the arbitrage trade goes wrong, it’s an abyss.
What do you think—are they a genius, or crazy?