2026, the year of all possibilities? Not for Fidelity Investments! Amid record debts, uncertain monetary policy, and tensions over the dollar, the company rather predicts that 2026 could very well disrupt all certainties surrounding Bitcoin.
Fidelity predicts a bad year
The tone is set for 2026: according to Jurrien Timmer, director of the Global Macro department at Fidelity Investments, the most famous cryptocurrency is about to go through a complex year.
While Bitcoin is currently hovering around $86,000, Timmer estimates that the peak of $125,000, reached in October 2025, could mark the end of the bullish cycle that began 145 months earlier. The strategist now expects a pullback to a support zone between $65,000 and $75,000.
A cautious forecast, especially since the trend contradicts Fidelity's previous scenarios. Gold, deemed a loser, has soared, while Bitcoin is running out of steam. For the macro strategist, the price of BTC is thus entering a prolonged consolidation period before any possible recoveries in the longer term.
A view that contrasts with that of Bitwise, a crypto management company that defends the idea of a new historical record in 2026, driven by the rise of ETFs and increasing institutional adoption.
Should we therefore expect a year without a significant rise? Not necessarily! Fidelity is focusing on the market, but the American economic context could reshuffle the cards.
After a year 2025 marked by strong macroeconomic volatility, public debt reaches the unprecedented level of 38,000 billion dollars, or 124.3% of GDP. This situation weakens the dollar and heightens inflationary tensions. In 2026, Washington will need to refinance nearly 8,000 billion dollars of debt incurred during the pandemic. Faced with high interest rates, the cost of this refinancing could become heavy, prompting the FED to ease its monetary policy, or even inject additional liquidity… and thus drive up crypto.
On the technical side, the on-chain signals reinforce the idea of a tense market, but not doomed. The aSOPR ratio, close to 1, suggests typical loss sales of a capitulation phase, while about 7 million BTC are now held at a latent loss.
If the price of BTC were to slide between 60,000 and 70,000 $, this could actually represent a floor before a new cycle. We would therefore only be in a phase of readjustment as has always been the case, without a confirmed bear market.
The moral of the story, he who believed he could take the trend, Fidelity learned this to its cost.