Everyone has been discussing the unlocking issue of SUI recently, I have organized the core data and shared it with friends in need👇
📊 Unlocking status (don't be misled by "10 billion will be unlocked soon")
The actual situation is: Most of it has already been unlocked.
Community reserve: 1.06 billion SUI, 76% unlocked (808 million), remaining 252 million early contributors: 613 million SUI, 50% unlocked (304 million), remaining 309 million Total progress: 1.678 billion, of which 1.112 billion has been released (66%), remaining 561 million will be released linearly until May 2030.
Current circulation of 3.737 billion accounts for 37.4% of the total supply of 10 billion, which means that 62.6% will be gradually unlocked in the future.
🔻 Recent pressure tested
Unlocking scale on December 1:
Release volume: 48.2 million-64.19 million SUI Value: approximately $70 million-$92 million (at the time price) Proportion of circulating supply: 1.3-1.7%
On-chain data is not looking good:
Net inflow to exchanges in the last 12 hours $27 million (selling pressure signal) 24-hour liquidation $4.52 million, of which 84% were long positions being liquidated (indicating that long positions are cutting losses when the price drops) Futures open interest $687 million but the funding rate is only +0.01%, everyone is on the sidelines.
Technical position (12-19 UTC 13:50):
Current price: $1.44 Core support: $1.35-$1.41 Key resistance: around $1.50 Risk point: dropping below $1.40 will trigger a liquidation waterfall of $11,700,000, possibly heading straight for $1.20-$1.00
📈 How do you view the long term?
Supply release rhythm:
2026: approximately 1.25 billion added (+33% dilution) 2027-2030: approximately 5 billion added (+134% dilution) In other words, the price must hold, and demand needs to grow by an average of 33% per year to offset supply expansion.
The good news is there is a hedge:
60% of the circulating supply is staked (about 2.24 billion SUI), will not directly crash the market TVL stabilizing at $926 million, 7-day DEX trading volume $1.5 billion, the ecosystem is still growing Community reserves are mainly used for ecological incentives, not for team cashing out, released monthly, not a one-time dump.
To put it bluntly: unlocking is a long-term dilution pressure, but staking and ecological fund usage can alleviate the impact. The key is whether the adoption of DeFi and DApps can truly scale in the coming years.
💡 Personal opinion
Short term (1-3 months): Moderate selling pressure, $1.40 is the key defense line. If it holds, it may rebound to $1.50-1.55, if it breaks, watch the support range of $1.20-1.35. Currently, bullish sentiment is not overly hot, and it hasn't reached a panic stage.
Long term (2026-2030): FDV premium of 2.67 times, 56% of supply yet to be released, essentially a 'growth gamble' - if the ecosystem can continue to expand (TVL, daily active users, use cases), dilution can be absorbed; if demand cannot keep up under L1 competition, the valuation will need to be repriced.
Operational suggestions (not investment advice):
Stable: wait for confirmation of support at $1.20-1.35 before considering aggressive: after holding $1.40, a rebound can be pursued Long term: monthly DCA to diversify risk, focus on tracking TVL and on-chain activity
Unlocking is not a flood, it's a steady stream. In the short term, $1.40 is support, long term depends on whether the ecosystem can support the valuation. The data is here, everyone can judge for themselves 🧐 $SUI #加密市场观察
