Samson Mow Claims Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In, Analysts’ Views Diverge Further
Samson Mow’s assertion, based on the halving-cycle acceleration thesis, is that the traditional four-year cycle model no longer works. This view is not an isolated one—Murad also suggested at the end of last year that this cycle might break the four-year pattern. However, market consensus has yet to form, and the disagreement has shifted from merely debating price forecasts to fundamentally questioning whether cycle models are valid in the first place.
A key detail is the split in analysts’ rationale for their bottom-call. Samson Mow relies on the “failure” of time-based规律, while Arthur Hayes, James Van Straten, and others adhere strictly to historical data-driven models (such as realized price and the 200-week moving average). Behind this divide is the market’s collective adjustment of its old analytical frameworks under the impact of new structural factors like ETFs. The key range of $46,000 to $54,000 recently highlighted by a co-founder at Glassnode aligns with Van Straten’s $50,000 to $54,000 assessment, showing that on-chain data proponents are rallying around a lower range—directly confronting Samson Mow’s claim that the bottom is already in.
Samson Mow’s assertion, based on the halving-cycle acceleration thesis, is that the traditional four-year cycle model no longer works. This view is not an isolated one—Murad also suggested at the end of last year that this cycle might break the four-year pattern. However, market consensus has yet to form, and the disagreement has shifted from merely debating price forecasts to fundamentally questioning whether cycle models are valid in the first place.
A key detail is the split in analysts’ rationale for their bottom-call. Samson Mow relies on the “failure” of time-based规律, while Arthur Hayes, James Van Straten, and others adhere strictly to historical data-driven models (such as realized price and the 200-week moving average). Behind this divide is the market’s collective adjustment of its old analytical frameworks under the impact of new structural factors like ETFs. The key range of $46,000 to $54,000 recently highlighted by a co-founder at Glassnode aligns with Van Straten’s $50,000 to $54,000 assessment, showing that on-chain data proponents are rallying around a lower range—directly confronting Samson Mow’s claim that the bottom is already in.