Author: Coingecko
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
As of June 24, the current Bitcoin bear market has already lasted 233 days, making it the fourth-longest bear market cycle among the seven bear-market cycles since 2014. This article defines a “bear market cycle” as the period during which the Bitcoin closing price remains below its 200-day moving average (200 DMA) for 30 consecutive days or longer.
A moving average is a technical indicator used to identify broader trends by smoothing short-term price fluctuations. The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) specifically tracks the average closing price over the past 200 days and is a widely used benchmark for evaluating the market’s long-term direction.
A look at past bear market cycles:
Daily closing price data sourced from CoinGecko, covering January 1, 2014 through June 24, 2026
The two longest bear-market cycles in Bitcoin history are 2018–2019 (385 days) and 2022–2023 (381 days). Both were structural breakdowns that appeared after new highs, driven by excessive leverage and a collapse of confidence. The 2018–2019 bear market followed the peak of the ICO frenzy at the end of 2017 and gradually faded as retail speculation cooled and global regulatory pressure increased. The 2022–2023 bear market was triggered by the May 2022 collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystem, which then sparked a chain of insolvencies—Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and ultimately FTX—completely destroying institutional investors’ confidence and dragging Bitcoin down to $16,000 in November 2022.
The bear market of 2014–2015 (lasting 321 days) was caused by the collapse of the then-largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, which completely shattered trust in this emerging market.
The other four bear markets were shorter in duration and were triggered by more isolated shock events. The 2019–2020 pullback (81 days) and the 2021 mid-cycle adjustment (80 days) were comparatively brief: the former was a consolidation phase in the middle of a market recovery, while the latter was driven by a temporary plunge in computing power and market sentiment due to China’s mining ban. The “COVID-19 crash” in 2020 (52 days), though the most severe, bottomed the fastest. It was a macro liquidity shock that was later alleviated as global stimulus measures flowed into the market.
The current 2025–2026 bear market (already 233 days as of the time of analysis) seems to stem from a broader macro shift: rising uncertainty around interest rates, the fading of post-halving momentum, and the emergence of AI as a speculative asset class. After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,773 in January 2025, these factors have all weighed on it.
How bad have past bear markets really been?
The current 2025–2026 bear market is actually the mildest of all time (hopefully), with a maximum drawdown of 51.2% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $124,773. In every prior bear market cycle, the drawdowns were larger—three of the major bear markets saw declines between 76.7% and 83.6%.
The closest comparable event was the mid-cycle adjustment in 2021 (a drawdown of 52.9%). However, that episode lasted only 80 days and occurred within a broader bull-market trend, rather than as a standalone bear-market cycle.
The two most destructive cycles in history are the 2018–2019 bear market (a decline of 83.6%) and the 2014–2015 bear market (a decline of 81.6%). Both erased the vast majority of Bitcoin’s gains prior to the eventual rebound from the bottom. The 2022–2023 cycle (a decline of 76.7%) was similarly severe: Bitcoin fell from its all-time high of $67,617 to a November 2022 low of $15,742.
Even short-lived, shock-driven crashes still caused major losses. The COVID-19 crash in 2020 lasted only 52 days, yet produced a 74.4% drawdown, highlighting how quickly crypto market sentiment and liquidity can deteriorate. The fact that the current cycle has avoided destruction on that scale so far may reflect a more resilient market structure, higher institutional participation, or simply that the bear market has not yet ended.
Is a recovery on the way?
As of June 24, Bitcoin’s 200 DMA is at $76,450, while the spot price is $62,651—about 22% apart. This means reclaiming the 200 DMA would require sustained rebounds of more than one-fifth from current levels. Historically, the 200 DMA has acted as a strong resistance level during the price rebound process, not just as support during the decline.
At present, Bitcoin is up by about 2.9% versus the cycle low reached on June 7, 2026 ($60,861). In several past bear markets, the time from confirming the bottom to the final recovery of the 200 DMA ranged from as short as 65 days (the 2022–2023 cycle) to as long as 166 days (the 2014–2015 cycle). If June 7 truly marked the bottom of this bear market (which requires more time to confirm), then even using the fastest historical recovery pace, reclaiming the 200 DMA would not be expected until no earlier than August 2026.
(The above content is licensed, excerpted, and reposted by partner PANews; original link )
"Lasted 233 days, drawdown over 50%: Is this bear market the 'mildest' one yet?" This article was first published on (BlockCast).