The biggest illusion in a bear market is thinking that when it drops by half, it suddenly looks cheap.
Brothers, today I saw a set of really painful data.
TedPillows compiled the largest drawdowns from the past three Bitcoin bear markets:
* 2015: -87%
* 2018: -84%
* 2022: -78%
And in this round, starting from the previous all-time high of $109,000, the current drawdown is only about 50%.
Many people have already started shouting “The bear market is over” and “This is the bottom,” but if you look at it in historical cycles, today’s drawdown isn’t that deep.
In the past few bear markets, the drawdown has gradually narrowed, but there has never been one where a mere 50% drop was enough to finish building a bottom. If this pattern continues, then the theoretical final drawdown of this bear market could still land around 60%–65%.
Translating that into prices:
* 50% drawdown: about $55,000
* 60% drawdown: about $43,600
* 65% drawdown: about $38,200
What’s interesting is that the range around $43,000 is very close to the $42,000–$44,000 prediction previously proposed by Jiangzhuoer. Different analytical frameworks, yet they arrive at a similar target range.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin will necessarily drop to $40,000.
History won’t repeat itself in a simple way—the market environment, ETF fund flows, institutional participation, and macro liquidity are all different from the past. History offers more of a reference than a definite answer.
What truly matters isn’t trying to guess the bottom, but waiting for the market to provide confirmation signals.
In a bear market, the easiest way to lose money isn’t failing to buy at the very bottom—it’s repeatedly trying to bottom-fish too early, time after time. The real big opportunities often belong to those who are willing to wait, not to those who are in a rush to prove they were right.$NVDAB $SPCXB $MUB
Brothers, today I saw a set of really painful data.
TedPillows compiled the largest drawdowns from the past three Bitcoin bear markets:
* 2015: -87%
* 2018: -84%
* 2022: -78%
And in this round, starting from the previous all-time high of $109,000, the current drawdown is only about 50%.
Many people have already started shouting “The bear market is over” and “This is the bottom,” but if you look at it in historical cycles, today’s drawdown isn’t that deep.
In the past few bear markets, the drawdown has gradually narrowed, but there has never been one where a mere 50% drop was enough to finish building a bottom. If this pattern continues, then the theoretical final drawdown of this bear market could still land around 60%–65%.
Translating that into prices:
* 50% drawdown: about $55,000
* 60% drawdown: about $43,600
* 65% drawdown: about $38,200
What’s interesting is that the range around $43,000 is very close to the $42,000–$44,000 prediction previously proposed by Jiangzhuoer. Different analytical frameworks, yet they arrive at a similar target range.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin will necessarily drop to $40,000.
History won’t repeat itself in a simple way—the market environment, ETF fund flows, institutional participation, and macro liquidity are all different from the past. History offers more of a reference than a definite answer.
What truly matters isn’t trying to guess the bottom, but waiting for the market to provide confirmation signals.
In a bear market, the easiest way to lose money isn’t failing to buy at the very bottom—it’s repeatedly trying to bottom-fish too early, time after time. The real big opportunities often belong to those who are willing to wait, not to those who are in a rush to prove they were right.$NVDAB $SPCXB $MUB