Goldman Sachs: The Reserve Bank of Australia needs to clear obstacles to cut interest rates, and the cash rate may fall to 3.25%

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs chief economist Andrew Boak said that much of the thinking about the RBA's 2024 meeting will focus on the timing and magnitude of the rate cut. But he believes that the RBA first needs to clear several major obstacles, including obtaining at least one more quarter of CPI data. He added that the RBA also wants to ensure that the federal budget in May does not include any pre-election profligate spending and that the mid-year reset of the minimum wage does not lead to another sharp increase. Goldman Sachs' basic forecast is that the current official cash rate of 4.35% will begin to fall from August to 3.25% by 2025.