$BTC 100-130 billion yuan options expiry, pain points 72k+, straight to zero! Will the market welcome a deep pullback? $ETH
Over at Deribit, the notional value is roughly $10–13 billion, and the size is not small. But the problem is that the vast majority are deep out-of-the-money call positions, with strike prices concentrated above 72k. Right now, Bitcoin is only hovering around 58k–60k, so these orders are basically worthless; they expire and effectively go straight to zero.
With the calls gone, the corresponding hedge buying naturally withdraws too—so the market loses a piece of its backstop strength. On the other hand, put options have the advantage: the Put/Call Ratio is clearly bearish. Although Max Pain sits around 72k–74k, the price has long moved out of that range, so the “pinning” effect is basically not useful; instead, it’s more likely to be pushed downward by sell pressure.
Add in that the weekend is coming, and liquidity is already thin. There’s also no good macro news, so any volatility gets amplified quickly. Technically, the support around 58k–59k doesn’t look very solid; if it breaks, chances are we’ll move toward 55k–57k. That zone will likely be the main testing ground in the short term.
If the selling pressure keeps increasing and volume expands as well, then 52k–54k isn’t impossible to see, but that would be an extreme scenario.
Overall, this expiry isn’t exactly “bad news fully absorbed.” It’s more like adding fuel to the downside. Call-side enthusiasm truly can’t withstand the reality of price levels, and the market will likely remain under pressure in the short term. Around 55k–57k will most likely become the focal area over the next few days.
Next, keep an eye on Deribit’s settlement data and spot trading volume—changes could come very fast.
Over at Deribit, the notional value is roughly $10–13 billion, and the size is not small. But the problem is that the vast majority are deep out-of-the-money call positions, with strike prices concentrated above 72k. Right now, Bitcoin is only hovering around 58k–60k, so these orders are basically worthless; they expire and effectively go straight to zero.
With the calls gone, the corresponding hedge buying naturally withdraws too—so the market loses a piece of its backstop strength. On the other hand, put options have the advantage: the Put/Call Ratio is clearly bearish. Although Max Pain sits around 72k–74k, the price has long moved out of that range, so the “pinning” effect is basically not useful; instead, it’s more likely to be pushed downward by sell pressure.
Add in that the weekend is coming, and liquidity is already thin. There’s also no good macro news, so any volatility gets amplified quickly. Technically, the support around 58k–59k doesn’t look very solid; if it breaks, chances are we’ll move toward 55k–57k. That zone will likely be the main testing ground in the short term.
If the selling pressure keeps increasing and volume expands as well, then 52k–54k isn’t impossible to see, but that would be an extreme scenario.
Overall, this expiry isn’t exactly “bad news fully absorbed.” It’s more like adding fuel to the downside. Call-side enthusiasm truly can’t withstand the reality of price levels, and the market will likely remain under pressure in the short term. Around 55k–57k will most likely become the focal area over the next few days.
Next, keep an eye on Deribit’s settlement data and spot trading volume—changes could come very fast.
