I've been re-reading an old book, Mo Lidsky's 'Partners in Preservation', which talks about how family offices manage risk. There's a line that basically says: the real risk isn't how much you've lost, it's when you think you're winning while you're actually losing.
After reading that, I took a look at the charts and saw fear & greed at 12, extreme fear. Then I checked Coinglass—$781M in long liquidations in the last 24 hours, while shorts were only $218M, a nearly 3.6:1 ratio. Total liquidations across the market are close to $1 billion.
Now, a lot of folks in the square are shouting 'the panic has cleared, the bottom is near'. I'm taking the contrarian stance: this round of long liquidations isn't over yet.
Why? The BTC funding rate is at -0.0020%, and there's still $46.49B in open interest sitting there. Think about it, the price dropped from a 4-hour high of 67292 to a low of 59103, a drop of over 12%, and open interest only shrank a little, indicating there are still a lot of long positions yet to be cleared. Last week a founder told me that their market maker data shows many 2x-3x long positions were opened in the 63000-65000 range, with liquidation prices around 56000-57000. In other words, today's $781M in long liquidations might just be the appetizer.
I myself have a BTC spot position at 78200 that's already down over 21%, losing about 32K USD. But I'm not worried about the spot, because I don't have a liquidation price hanging over me. Contracts are different—these longs have their vesting enforced by the market, no cliff, no grace period; when the price hits, it’s zeroed out. This is just like what I saw back when I worked with project teams: the day the team token cliff expires, whether you're ready or not, the market doesn’t wait for you.
That book also says: 'preservation beats performance'. In this fear & greed environment at 12, surviving is more important than winning. But there are still people shouting 'buy the dip'—do you really think $781M in long liquidations isn't enough of a warning?
After reading that, I took a look at the charts and saw fear & greed at 12, extreme fear. Then I checked Coinglass—$781M in long liquidations in the last 24 hours, while shorts were only $218M, a nearly 3.6:1 ratio. Total liquidations across the market are close to $1 billion.
Now, a lot of folks in the square are shouting 'the panic has cleared, the bottom is near'. I'm taking the contrarian stance: this round of long liquidations isn't over yet.
Why? The BTC funding rate is at -0.0020%, and there's still $46.49B in open interest sitting there. Think about it, the price dropped from a 4-hour high of 67292 to a low of 59103, a drop of over 12%, and open interest only shrank a little, indicating there are still a lot of long positions yet to be cleared. Last week a founder told me that their market maker data shows many 2x-3x long positions were opened in the 63000-65000 range, with liquidation prices around 56000-57000. In other words, today's $781M in long liquidations might just be the appetizer.
I myself have a BTC spot position at 78200 that's already down over 21%, losing about 32K USD. But I'm not worried about the spot, because I don't have a liquidation price hanging over me. Contracts are different—these longs have their vesting enforced by the market, no cliff, no grace period; when the price hits, it’s zeroed out. This is just like what I saw back when I worked with project teams: the day the team token cliff expires, whether you're ready or not, the market doesn’t wait for you.
That book also says: 'preservation beats performance'. In this fear & greed environment at 12, surviving is more important than winning. But there are still people shouting 'buy the dip'—do you really think $781M in long liquidations isn't enough of a warning?