This time, the Federal Reserve may not want to save the market at all.

What is the market waiting for?

Interest rate cuts, dovish shifts, liquidity injections, a liquidity bull market.

But it’s very likely that you’re waiting in the wrong direction.

1. The so-called 'interest rate cut expectations' seem more like a story forcibly fabricated.

7 senior officials of the Federal Reserve clearly oppose interest rate cuts.

Powell's speech deliberately obscures the timeline, providing imagination but no commitments.

The long-term dot plot shows: only 2 rate cuts in 2026-2027.

👉 This is not the starting point of an easing cycle,

but rather 'long-term high interest rates + managing market expectations.'

2. Inflation is not a problem, so there is no reason to save the market.

Many people overlook one point:

The Federal Reserve itself believes that inflation is no longer the main contradiction.

Inflation is not urgent.

Market fluctuations are not considered systemic risks.

👉 So may I ask:

Why lower interest rates for asset prices?

The answer is: there is no motivation.

3. Weak employment data? It might be a 'false signal'.

The White House shutdown has led to missing employment data.

The scale of the error is about 60,000 people.

Missing data will be made up in January-February 2026.

👉 This gives the Federal Reserve a perfect reason:

'Let's wait and see.'

4. The real conclusion (also where it contradicts consensus)

The Federal Reserve currently has no intention of saving the market.

Only one situation would force them to act:

A continuous significant drop in the employment rate for 2-3 times

And cannot be explained by 'statistical error.'

Before that:

There will be no comprehensive interest rate cuts.

There will be no proactive support.

There will be no policy changes for market sentiment.

👉 A hard landing may be the precondition for real liquidity to return.

5. What does this mean for US stocks & crypto?

The current market does not equal a liquidity bull market.

It resembles: expectation games + fund rotations.

Fluctuations at high levels, false breakouts, and spikes will become the norm.

The real large-scale trends will not appear in a phase where 'everyone is waiting for a market rescue',

but rather after—

the market is hurt and confidence is completely killed.

The current problem in the market is not 'will it go up',

but: are you betting your hopes on a central bank that fundamentally does not want to save you? #加密市场观察 #美联储降息