#SpaceX蒸发$6000亿 to that brother who said "Fear and Greed 23 is the limit, since it rebounded at this level last time, it should be a buy now" → You should check my post from May 27, back then when Fear and Greed was at 25, I mentioned that just looking at the Fear and Greed index isn't enough; we need to analyze the fees and liquidation structure together.
Let me start with myself. Last week, when BTC was around 64200, I added a spot position in ETH with an average price of 1720, increasing my position from 30% to 35%. The logic was that ETH's 4-hour chart hit below 15%, and the fees were still positive, indicating a short-term oversold situation but without a structural breakdown. Today ETH is at 1664, showing a floating loss of about 3.3%, which translates to roughly 1800u lost. Honestly, that's not much, but the problem isn't how much I've lost; it's whether my entry rationale still holds.
Breaking down the current data → In the entire market, 24h long liquidations are at 509 million, while short liquidations are only at 63.2 million, giving a long-to-short liquidation ratio close to 8:1. ETH alone has long liquidations of 131 million, while shorts are just 17 million. This isn't a narrative of "shorts getting slaughtered"; it's shorts getting crushed by the longs. BTC's 4-hour chart has a 13.2% drop, and ETH also at 13.2%, both near the floor, yet the fees remain positive—BTC +0.0037%, ETH +0.0021%. Longs are still paying, while prices continue to drop; I've seen this combination before on ENA, and I wrote about it specifically at the end of May. Positive fees don't mean prices won't drop; they just indicate that shorts haven't entered the market massively yet.
So my assessment is that my ETH position logic hasn't completely broken yet, but the risk-reward ratio is worsening. I've set my stop-loss at 1580; if it breaks that, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut it off, which would mean a further loss of just over 4000u. If it doesn't break 1580, I won't make any moves. SOL's fees have turned negative at -0.008%, which is actually cleaner in structure than BTC and ETH, but I won't add for now; I’ll wait for a signal.
Returning to that brother's question → Fear and Greed 23 did rebound last time, but back then, the fees were negative with shorts paying, while this time, the fees are positive with longs paying and still getting liquidated. The same Fear and Greed number, but the underlying position structure is completely different. If you want to bottom fish, I'm not stopping you, but at least take a look at the OI and liquidation direction before you dive in.
Mistakes are fine, but losing sight of the risk is a big no-no. This does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk.
Let me start with myself. Last week, when BTC was around 64200, I added a spot position in ETH with an average price of 1720, increasing my position from 30% to 35%. The logic was that ETH's 4-hour chart hit below 15%, and the fees were still positive, indicating a short-term oversold situation but without a structural breakdown. Today ETH is at 1664, showing a floating loss of about 3.3%, which translates to roughly 1800u lost. Honestly, that's not much, but the problem isn't how much I've lost; it's whether my entry rationale still holds.
Breaking down the current data → In the entire market, 24h long liquidations are at 509 million, while short liquidations are only at 63.2 million, giving a long-to-short liquidation ratio close to 8:1. ETH alone has long liquidations of 131 million, while shorts are just 17 million. This isn't a narrative of "shorts getting slaughtered"; it's shorts getting crushed by the longs. BTC's 4-hour chart has a 13.2% drop, and ETH also at 13.2%, both near the floor, yet the fees remain positive—BTC +0.0037%, ETH +0.0021%. Longs are still paying, while prices continue to drop; I've seen this combination before on ENA, and I wrote about it specifically at the end of May. Positive fees don't mean prices won't drop; they just indicate that shorts haven't entered the market massively yet.
So my assessment is that my ETH position logic hasn't completely broken yet, but the risk-reward ratio is worsening. I've set my stop-loss at 1580; if it breaks that, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut it off, which would mean a further loss of just over 4000u. If it doesn't break 1580, I won't make any moves. SOL's fees have turned negative at -0.008%, which is actually cleaner in structure than BTC and ETH, but I won't add for now; I’ll wait for a signal.
Returning to that brother's question → Fear and Greed 23 did rebound last time, but back then, the fees were negative with shorts paying, while this time, the fees are positive with longs paying and still getting liquidated. The same Fear and Greed number, but the underlying position structure is completely different. If you want to bottom fish, I'm not stopping you, but at least take a look at the OI and liquidation direction before you dive in.
Mistakes are fine, but losing sight of the risk is a big no-no. This does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk.