Those still yelling 'top' on MU at $MU clearly haven't grasped the essence of this market cycle.
MU is now over $1100, and everywhere you hear people calling it a top. These folks are suffering from PTSD from the cyclical boom and bust in the past storage industry and are completely ignoring the numbers right in front of them. This round is not just a cycle; it's a structural revaluation—the underlying logic has completely changed.
Storage is now the physical toll booth for the entire AI infrastructure. Every time Google, AMD, or Nvidia launches a new AI training cluster, they must buy HBM. The next-gen accelerators simply won't run without HBM, and the supply just can’t keep up with demand. This supply constraint isn’t temporary; HBM capacity is sold out for the remainder of this year and all the way to 2027—this is not speculation; it’s locked-in contract revenue. When a hardware company’s capacity is sold out for years ahead and demand still exceeds supply, gross margins start to align with those of software companies, and you can’t value it using the framework of cyclical stocks anymore.
Wednesday’s post-market earnings report from MU will be a catalyst for institutional funds to dive in.
The headline numbers are sure to be impressive, but the real highlights will be the forward guidance and gross margins. Once updates on HBM4 capacity ramp-up come in, a wave of institutional funds sitting on the sidelines will be forced to enter the market. Given MU's current growth rate, the forward P/E ratio is ridiculously low, and this mispricing won't last long.
I’m even more bullish on the DRAM ETF than on MU itself. The entire storage industry is in a classic oligopoly, with a supply gap combined with unrestrained pricing power—it's not just one company that benefits, but the whole supply chain.
Based on this assessment, I expect the DRAM ETF to hit $100 before Q4, and MU to reach $1500. The numbers are there; the market will provide the answer.
MU is now over $1100, and everywhere you hear people calling it a top. These folks are suffering from PTSD from the cyclical boom and bust in the past storage industry and are completely ignoring the numbers right in front of them. This round is not just a cycle; it's a structural revaluation—the underlying logic has completely changed.
Storage is now the physical toll booth for the entire AI infrastructure. Every time Google, AMD, or Nvidia launches a new AI training cluster, they must buy HBM. The next-gen accelerators simply won't run without HBM, and the supply just can’t keep up with demand. This supply constraint isn’t temporary; HBM capacity is sold out for the remainder of this year and all the way to 2027—this is not speculation; it’s locked-in contract revenue. When a hardware company’s capacity is sold out for years ahead and demand still exceeds supply, gross margins start to align with those of software companies, and you can’t value it using the framework of cyclical stocks anymore.
Wednesday’s post-market earnings report from MU will be a catalyst for institutional funds to dive in.
The headline numbers are sure to be impressive, but the real highlights will be the forward guidance and gross margins. Once updates on HBM4 capacity ramp-up come in, a wave of institutional funds sitting on the sidelines will be forced to enter the market. Given MU's current growth rate, the forward P/E ratio is ridiculously low, and this mispricing won't last long.
I’m even more bullish on the DRAM ETF than on MU itself. The entire storage industry is in a classic oligopoly, with a supply gap combined with unrestrained pricing power—it's not just one company that benefits, but the whole supply chain.
Based on this assessment, I expect the DRAM ETF to hit $100 before Q4, and MU to reach $1500. The numbers are there; the market will provide the answer.