In the early hours of June 18th, Beijing time, the Fed announced its latest interest rate decision.
Data shows:
• Announced value: 3.75%
• Previous value: 3.75%
• Market expectation: 3.75%
The outcome was in line with market expectations, with the Fed keeping the upper limit of the federal funds rate target range unchanged.
For the capital markets, this isn't exactly 'no change' news; on the contrary, meeting expectations itself is a market signal.
No change in rates means the market hasn't encountered any new variables.
Over the past year, global financial markets have been trading around two questions:
• When will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
• Will interest rates be raised again?
The answer given by this decision is still - continue to observe.
Since the published value, forecast value, and previous value are completely consistent, it indicates that current monetary policy hasn't changed direction. The market had already priced in the results of this meeting, so most risk assets won't experience drastic fluctuations due to 'the results themselves' after the announcement.
What really drives the market isn't just the data, but whether it exceeds market expectations.
This is why, often, the same economic data can sometimes trigger a big market movement, while at other times it seems quite calm.
The crypto market's focus has shifted from 'current interest rates' to 'future expectations'.
Crypto asset prices are quite sensitive to the interest rate environment. In a high-interest-rate environment, the cost of USD funds is relatively high, and market liquidity is somewhat limited; whereas, increased expectations for rate cuts usually favor the performance of risk assets.
After this meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, the market's focus gradually shifts:
• Will the Federal Reserve signal policy adjustments in the coming months?
• Will the upcoming CPI, PCE, and non-farm employment data support a policy shift?
• Changes in the direction of global fund flows.
This decision is more of a 'confirmation event'; the next phase of the market trend will still depend on whether future macro data aligns in a consistent direction.
Trading opportunities still exist, with an emphasis on risk management.
Major macro events typically boost market volatility. Even if the outcomes meet expectations, the emotional shifts and fund rotations around the announcement can still create short-term trading opportunities.
I suggest traders keep an eye on the economic calendar and plan their strategies using technical analysis ahead of time, rather than passively chasing after news once it's released.
As market hot spots continue to unfold, traders should also pay attention to the periodic activities and user incentives launched by major trading platforms to plan their trading rhythm effectively.
The release of major macro data often comes with increased volatility, serving as an important window to gauge market sentiment. In the future, WEEX will continue to monitor global macro dynamics and crypto market hot spots to provide more trading references.