#美联储FOMC会议 Interest rates were cut as expected, but the policy focus has undergone a historic shift! 📉
The Federal Reserve decided at the December meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. More importantly, the official statement clearly listed the "increased downside risks to the labor market" as a core basis for the policy shift for the first time, marking a change in focus from "anti-inflation priority" to "preventive support for employment."
📊 Economic forecasts reveal challenges
The simultaneously released Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) paints a complex picture:
· Growth expectations significantly downgraded: The forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 was sharply revised down from 2.3% in September to 1.7%.
· Inflation remains sticky: The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was slightly revised up to 2.9%, and for the first time, a clear roadmap for "meeting the target by 2028" was outlined.
· Interest rate path: The dot plot shows that officials expect only one rate cut in 2026, with the long-term median interest rate maintained at 3.0%, above historical levels.
⚖️ Significant internal divisions exist
The voting result for this decision was 9:1:1, reflecting profound divisions within the committee over whether the main current risk is "growth slowdown" or "inflation rebound."
💎 What does this mean for the market?
This meeting was interpreted by institutions as "more dovish than expected," not only because of the rate cut but also due to the announcement of restarting balance sheet expansion (purchasing government bonds) to maintain market liquidity. The clear shift in policy stance provides a more accommodating liquidity environment expectation for risk assets.
Do you think the Federal Reserve's policy "seatbelt" can protect the economy's soft landing?
