1. 2026.6.18 | 10 key heavyweight news in the crypto space
The Fed's hawkish expectations are still brewing, BTC plummeted to 63797 USD during trading, with a 24h drop of 3.04%; over 112,000 people got liquidated, totaling 476 million USD in liquidations, with more than 70% of liquidations being long positions. The fear and greed index has dropped to 14 (extreme fear zone).
The FOMC dot plot has significantly raised inflation expectations, with the rate forecast for the end of 2026 now at 3.75%-4%. The market is pricing in one more rate hike this year, leaving no room for cuts, which continues to pressure the valuation of non-yielding crypto assets.
BTC spot ETF has seen significant net outflows for two consecutive days, with a single day outflow of 82.2 million USD. ETH is also being redeemed simultaneously, as institutional funds are collectively sitting on the sidelines, with no active bottom-fishing actions.
The two-day 2026 Lujiazui Forum has concluded, with six departments releasing an offshore financial action plan, accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi and the cross-border deployment of RWA, heating up the narrative for long-term Asian capital.
Today, the US and Iran officially signed a peace memorandum, fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have sharply retreated, but the benefits are entirely offset by the Fed's tightening expectations, leaving the market with no rebound momentum.
All coins are diverging: Meme assets are under the heaviest selling pressure, with PENGU and BONK weakening across the board; only RWA-related XRP is showing slight resilience, as funds flee from small coins to stablecoins for safety.
CME officially announces the launch of BTC volatility futures next month, expanding the range of compliant crypto derivatives, which is a long-term positive for institutional fund allocations.
The EU's MiCA regulation transition period is approaching in July, and several small to medium foreign platforms are starting to withdraw assets from European users, causing altcoin liquidity to continue dwindling.
SpaceX's holding information continues to develop; 18,712 BTC are locked long-term, reinforcing the logic of real enterprises allocating crypto assets and the long-term value of RWA.
MicroStrategy maintains its position today, making no additions or reductions, waiting for macro monetary policy to become clear before making any moves.
2. Fully long positions faced a 12% overnight loss! Below the ice point of 63800, I gave up on liquidating and only held two types of assets to weather the rate hike cycle. | 6.18 live trading diary.
This morning after checking the Fed's dot plot, I opened my account and felt anxious; all my long positions retraced, and many 'retail traders' around me panicked and liquidated.
After reviewing all the news and capital flow throughout the day, I decisively abandoned panic selling, clarifying the current market's long-term logic is completely separated from short-term negative pressures. I'll share a strategy suitable for navigating a high-rate bear market's volatility, no fluff, just actionable insights.
1. The core contradiction behind today's sharp decline: long-term positives can't withstand short-term macro sell-offs.
Short-term pressure (current market's main culprit for the decline)
The Fed's tightening expectations have escalated, wiping out rate cut expectations for the year, and even introducing a new rate hike expectation. BTC and ETH have no interest yields, and funds are prioritizing selling off to avoid risks.
ETFs have seen large outflows for two consecutive days, with institutions unwilling to enter during this macro uncertainty; the market lacks support, and slight selling pressure can amplify declines.
Meme and high-altitude small coins are seeing concentrated profit-taking exits, spreading panic sentiment in the market, retail investors' 'more kill more' exacerbates the decline.
Long-term bottom support (no need to be fully bearish on the underlying logic)
The geopolitical crisis between the US and Iran has completely ended, removing the largest global risk point, opening up space for mid- to long-term risk appetite recovery.
The Lujiazui Forum releases policy dividends for cross-border RWA in renminbi; entities like SpaceX continue to accumulate BTC, and the trend of traditional real capital entering the crypto space remains unchanged.
CME crypto derivatives continue to expand, with global compliant channels increasing, and the industry's fundamentals have not collapsed.
In summary: Short-term is macro sentiment killing valuations, while the long-term growth logic of the industry remains intact. The current situation is a mispricing volatility, not the start of a new bear market.
2. Market strengths and weaknesses are polarized; two types of assets should be retained, while two types should be liquidated.
✅ Worth holding long-term (high anti-dip attributes)
RWA leader XRP
The global tokenization of real assets is accelerating, with continuous growth in cross-border settlement demand. Today, despite the market's sharp decline, there's slight resilience, unaffected by short-term interest rate fluctuations.
Operations: Keep the base position unchanged; below 63000, consider small incremental buys of mainstream BTC to hedge volatility, support at 1.15U.
BTC spot base position
The long-term logic for allocating digital gold remains unchanged; below 64000 is a macro panic mispricing zone, don't liquidate everything at low levels.
Operations: Retain 40% of the base position, do not add heavy positions, wait for a shift in Fed policy before increasing exposure.
❌ Liquidated all positions today to avoid (selling pressure is limitless)
All kinds of meme coins (PENGU, BONK, etc.)
Without fundamental support, the market is driven solely by emotional speculation. Panic selling during downturns far exceeds mainstream declines, with weak rebounds; it's best to exit directly in the short term.
Niche altcoins without regulatory backing.
The EU's MiCA withdrawal window is approaching, with liquidity drying up for small platforms, making them susceptible to flash crashes; the risk-reward ratio is severely imbalanced.
3. Mainstream coins' precise range + minimal position allocation plan.
BTC
Support at 63500 (short-term dividing line), 63000 (strong support); resistance at 65000, 66000.
Operations: Keep total positions within 40%; around 63000, consider small batch buying; reduce positions on rebounds above 64800, do not chase the rebounds.
ETH
Support at 1720, resistance at 1780
Operations: Keep only 10% of the base position; the correlation with the market is extremely high, do not open new positions to speculate on short-term movements.
BNB
Support at 608, resistance at 625
Operations: Conservative users should allocate 20%, with a strong compliance moat for the platform, using it to balance account retracements in a volatile market.
3. High interest rate volatility: 4 personal operational bottom lines
Directly shorting contracts: 110,000 people face liquidation, high interest rate cycles make spikes a norm, leverage will only amplify losses, abandon short-term contract speculation.
Total position not exceeding 70%: Reserve 30% in stablecoin cash; if it dips below 63000 later, consider averaging down in batches.
Avoid frequent switching of coins: Reduce short-term trading fees, focus on RWA and BTC as the two main lines, and don't touch the rest.
Don't bet on short-term policy reversals: The Fed will maintain high interest rates for at least 1-2 months. Don't fantasize about a rapid one-sided surge; approach it with a swing trading mindset.
Many panic sell during downturns, perfectly missing out on subsequent recovery trends. Rate hikes are just short-term liquidity disturbances; the global trend of real and financial institutions entering the crypto space won't change.
There's no need to despair and liquidate now; distinguish between strong and weak sectors, control total positions, and patiently wait for macro negatives to fully digest.
Are you panicking and liquidating today, or are you buying the dip on mainstream assets? Let's discuss your positions in the comments.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is an objective market report and does not constitute investment advice. The volatility risk of crypto assets is extremely high; please manage your positions rationally and set stop-loss orders strictly.