The world of cryptocurrencies is not lacking in sometimes very bold predictions. But which forecasts from experts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP really come true, and which are completely off the mark?

Bitcoin: the 100,000 dollar threshold crossed — what will happen in 2026?

Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) predicted in 2024 a Bitcoin between 100,000 and 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025. While BTC is currently around 100,000 dollars, the entrepreneur was right. For 2026, he forecasts at least 150,000 dollars, driven by institutional inflows into ETFs and a potential strategic reserve of Bitcoin under Trump’s presidency.

Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) remains optimistic with a forecast of $250,000 by the end of 2026. She notably highlights the $60 billion already invested in Bitcoin ETFs and expects significant additional inflows from pension funds.

For his part, Peter Schiff was once again completely wrong in 2025. The gold advocate had predicted Bitcoin below $30,000 – instead, BTC approached the $100,000 mark. His reaction: "The crash is still coming!", as he has repeated since 2011.

Standard Chartered predicts a cautious estimate of $200,000 by the end of 2026, while VanEck is slightly more reserved at $180,000. Bloomberg Intelligence sees Bitcoin at $160,000 and emphasizes its growing role as "digital gold."

Consensus: Bitcoin should be between $120,000 and $200,000 in 2026, with macroeconomic factors like Fed rate decisions remaining decisive.

Ethereum: the struggle for survival

Raoul Pal was completely wrong in 2024 with his prediction of $12,000 for Ethereum by the end of 2025. In reality, Ethereum is hovering around $3,800, having significantly overestimated the adoption of DeFi and underestimated the explosive competition from Solana.

Arthur Hayes had predicted $5,000 by the end of 2025, and with a current price of $3,800, he is not far off. His analysis, stating that "Ethereum is still lagging behind Bitcoin," continues to be confirmed.

For 2026, however, the sector is divided: ARK Invest aims for $8,000, driven by the planned Pectra update in the first quarter of 2026 and the tokenization of real assets.

VanEck is being much more cautious with a prediction of Ethereum at $5,500, highlighting the revenue cannibalization of Ethereum fees by Layer-2 solutions.

JPMorgan remains quite skeptical with only $4,200 and highlights the growing market share of Solana in gaming and NFTs.

In reality, Ethereum's Layer-2 solutions exploded in 2025 but reduced fees by 70%, marking an economic paradox. Ethereum ETFs disappointed with only $6 billion (one-tenth of Bitcoin ETFs).

Consensus: between $4,000 and $7,000 by the end of 2026, but Ethereum continues to lose market share.

XRP, legal triumph and disappointing price

Brad Garlinghouse suggested in 2024 that a total victory against the SEC could propel XRP between $5 and $10. The SEC indeed withdrew its appeal in July 2025, marking a historic turning point. However, XRP is currently trading at $2.50, well below expectations.

For its part, Standard Chartered surprises by predicting $5 by the end of 2026, arguing that the Trump administration could promote XRP as a "bridge currency." ARK Invest remains between $3 and $4, while Ripple mentions $5 to $8 if several major banks adopt its On-Demand Liquidity system.

Consensus: $2.50 to $5 by the end of 2026, with institutional banking partnerships being the key element.

What will be the decisive factors in 2026?

The Fed's monetary policy dominates everything. Further rate cuts could thus propel Bitcoin above $180,000, while rate hikes could trigger a crash down to $80,000.

The Crypto Council of Trump and a potential strategic reserve of Bitcoin also seem bullish.

ETF Flow: Bitcoin ETFs have already surpassed $60 billion. An additional influx of $50 to $100 billion by the end of 2026 is realistic and would continue to support the market.

Conclusion: No one really knows

The most effective strategy remains potentially dollar-cost averaging and long-term holding – rather than trying to time the market based on the predictions of people with their own interests.

The moral of the story: macroeconomics outweighs the fundamentals of the crypto market.