Does #沃什首次FOMC维持利率 look exactly like what I predicted yesterday?
Let's talk about the current outlook: this meeting was indeed pretty hawkish. First, the dot plot is hawkish (half the board members believe in a rate hike by year-end), second, Waller emphasized the importance of data and the market's expectations, while firmly committing to bringing inflation back to 2%. Overall, this brings a hawkish sentiment and expectations for rate hikes. My feeling is that despite high inflation, the job market is solid, and Waller's first press conference was indeed reasonable in a hawkish tone. However, he also stressed the importance of data sources and the establishment of a special task force, which actually leaves room for future policies and can be seen as having greater operability. From this perspective, we can be optimistic about upcoming policies. #半数联储官员支持2026年加息
Everyone might consider the shift from rate cuts to hikes. Will there be a rate hike in September? I still think the probability is very low. The shift has just begun, and with the new administration only three months in, initiating a rate hike is a tough sell. How would Trump explain that? It's a bit funny! Of course, December is looking like a rate hike possibility, which will definitely impact liquidity and expectations, but I remain optimistic about the second half of the year; there’s potential!
Anyway, everyone must remember: opportunities arise from dips, and risks come from rallies.
Let's talk about the current outlook: this meeting was indeed pretty hawkish. First, the dot plot is hawkish (half the board members believe in a rate hike by year-end), second, Waller emphasized the importance of data and the market's expectations, while firmly committing to bringing inflation back to 2%. Overall, this brings a hawkish sentiment and expectations for rate hikes. My feeling is that despite high inflation, the job market is solid, and Waller's first press conference was indeed reasonable in a hawkish tone. However, he also stressed the importance of data sources and the establishment of a special task force, which actually leaves room for future policies and can be seen as having greater operability. From this perspective, we can be optimistic about upcoming policies. #半数联储官员支持2026年加息
Everyone might consider the shift from rate cuts to hikes. Will there be a rate hike in September? I still think the probability is very low. The shift has just begun, and with the new administration only three months in, initiating a rate hike is a tough sell. How would Trump explain that? It's a bit funny! Of course, December is looking like a rate hike possibility, which will definitely impact liquidity and expectations, but I remain optimistic about the second half of the year; there’s potential!
Anyway, everyone must remember: opportunities arise from dips, and risks come from rallies.