First FOMC under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Rate decision matters less than his monetary policy stance—watch for signals on money supply expansion and balance sheet trajectory.

Warsh's inaugural meeting could reveal policy pivot. He's historically hawkish on inflation but pragmatic on liquidity. Any deviation from Powell-era orthodoxy = market repricing event.

Dot plot + macro projections (CPI, unemployment, GDP) drop simultaneously. Discrepancies between Warsh's commentary and committee consensus will show internal Fed dynamics and forward guidance reliability.

Key variable: Does Warsh signal tightening bias or accommodation? His language on "money expansion" will set tone for risk assets, $BTC, and credit spreads through Q2.

This isn't just another Fed meeting. First impressions from a new Chair carry alpha. Position accordingly.