⚠️ The next crucial factor for BTC isn't the price, but the timing.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB
At the start of June, BTC briefly hit around $60,000.
By mid-June, it bounced back to around $66,000.
I'm primarily looking at 6 key phases:
1️⃣ | June 17–18
⚠️ Fed / Interest Rates / Press Conference
First, let's check the Fed's tone.
If it's hawkish, risk assets might get squeezed again; if not so hawkish, BTC could have a chance to test the upper resistance again.
This part is just about short-term spikes, not confirming a major bottom.
2️⃣ | June 18–July 3
⚠️ $70,000 / ETF / Shallow Bottom Confirmation
If BTC can hold steady at $68,000–$70,000, and ETF funds flow back in consistently, then around $60,000 could signify a shallow bottom.
If it keeps failing to break above $70,000, we need to be cautious about this repair.
3️⃣ | June 24–28
⚠️ CME / Futures Settlement / Liquidation
Around June 26 is the CME BTC futures settlement window.
It might not determine the trend, but it's likely to amplify volatility.
4️⃣ | July 14–31
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Bank of Japan
I'll be particularly cautious during this period.
If BTC hasn't held above $70,000, and there's no clear ETF inflow, mid to late July could see a second dip.
Observation zones: $62,000–$64,000, $58,000–$62,000, $52,000–$56,000.
5️⃣ | August 12–September 18
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Major Bottom Window
If we can't break above $70,000 consistently, I'll pay more attention to $52,000–$56,000.
It may not reach there, but it looks more like a major bottom observation area.
6️⃣ | October 13–November 25
⚠️ Historical Cycle / Major Bottom Confirmation
If the previous structure hasn't cleared out, this could be a larger cycle confirmation window.
BTC's bottom often takes time, capital, and sentiment to materialize, not just a few weeks.
💫 My Judgment:
June: Repair window.
Mid to late July: First danger window.
Mid-August to mid-September: Major bottom observation window.
Mid to late October: Cycle confirmation window.
⚡️ Three Key Levels:
⚡️ $68,000–$70,000: Can the repair hold?
⚡️ $58,000–$62,000: Can the shallow bottom hold?
⚡️ $52,000–$56,000: Is the major bottom forming?
Until funds flow back in, any rebound is just a bounce.
Until the structure stabilizes, any repair isn't a reversal.
First, focus on timing, then events, and finally how the funds choose to play out.
#BTC #ETH #fomc #cpi #ETF
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB
At the start of June, BTC briefly hit around $60,000.
By mid-June, it bounced back to around $66,000.
I'm primarily looking at 6 key phases:
1️⃣ | June 17–18
⚠️ Fed / Interest Rates / Press Conference
First, let's check the Fed's tone.
If it's hawkish, risk assets might get squeezed again; if not so hawkish, BTC could have a chance to test the upper resistance again.
This part is just about short-term spikes, not confirming a major bottom.
2️⃣ | June 18–July 3
⚠️ $70,000 / ETF / Shallow Bottom Confirmation
If BTC can hold steady at $68,000–$70,000, and ETF funds flow back in consistently, then around $60,000 could signify a shallow bottom.
If it keeps failing to break above $70,000, we need to be cautious about this repair.
3️⃣ | June 24–28
⚠️ CME / Futures Settlement / Liquidation
Around June 26 is the CME BTC futures settlement window.
It might not determine the trend, but it's likely to amplify volatility.
4️⃣ | July 14–31
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Bank of Japan
I'll be particularly cautious during this period.
If BTC hasn't held above $70,000, and there's no clear ETF inflow, mid to late July could see a second dip.
Observation zones: $62,000–$64,000, $58,000–$62,000, $52,000–$56,000.
5️⃣ | August 12–September 18
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Major Bottom Window
If we can't break above $70,000 consistently, I'll pay more attention to $52,000–$56,000.
It may not reach there, but it looks more like a major bottom observation area.
6️⃣ | October 13–November 25
⚠️ Historical Cycle / Major Bottom Confirmation
If the previous structure hasn't cleared out, this could be a larger cycle confirmation window.
BTC's bottom often takes time, capital, and sentiment to materialize, not just a few weeks.
💫 My Judgment:
June: Repair window.
Mid to late July: First danger window.
Mid-August to mid-September: Major bottom observation window.
Mid to late October: Cycle confirmation window.
⚡️ Three Key Levels:
⚡️ $68,000–$70,000: Can the repair hold?
⚡️ $58,000–$62,000: Can the shallow bottom hold?
⚡️ $52,000–$56,000: Is the major bottom forming?
Until funds flow back in, any rebound is just a bounce.
Until the structure stabilizes, any repair isn't a reversal.
First, focus on timing, then events, and finally how the funds choose to play out.
#BTC #ETH #fomc #cpi #ETF